-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  gelpi.out
  log type:  text
 opened on:  30 Apr 2015, 15:52:36

.  set more off;

. /* input data from GelpiPOCReplication.zip previously housed on
> http://people.duke.edu/~gelpi/data.htm.  This dataset includes the
> variable measuring approval of President Bush that is not included in
> the dataset on the JCR web-site, but does not include the
> four-category measure of approval of a timetable for withdrawal from
> Iraq (apptimetable). */  
> 
> use GelpiFeb2009;

. /* show list of variables in GelpiFeb2009 */
> 
> list in 1;

     +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | caseid | poseve~s | negeve~s | posbush | negbush | surgeb~r | warsuc~d |
     |    561 |        0 |        0 |       0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
     | disapp~e  | democrat  | republ~n  | bushap~e  | poseve~m  |  negeve~m  |
     |        0  |        1  |        0  | somewhat  |        0  |         0  |
     |-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------------|
     | poseve~p  | negeve~p  | posbus~p  | negbus~p  | posbus~m  |  negbus~m  |
     |        0  |        0  |        0  |        0  |        0  |         1  |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
     |  tooktr~t   |   iraqis~k   |   iraqri~t   |   iraqwin   |   iraqri~n   |
     |         1   |          5   |          1   |         1   |          1   |
     +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. /* show from basic frequenices of the main dependent variables in
> GelpiFeb2009 */
> 
> tab iraqwin warsucc, column;

+-------------------+
| Key               |
|-------------------|
|     frequency     |
| column percentage |
+-------------------+

  Iraq War |
      will | Iraq War Will Succeed
   succeed |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |       169          0 |       169 
           |     33.14       0.00 |     16.95 
-----------+----------------------+----------
         1 |       341          0 |       341 
           |     66.86       0.00 |     34.20 
-----------+----------------------+----------
         2 |         0        298 |       298 
           |      0.00      61.19 |     29.89 
-----------+----------------------+----------
         3 |         0        189 |       189 
           |      0.00      38.81 |     18.96 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |       510        487 |       997 
           |    100.00     100.00 |    100.00 


. tab disapptimetable;

 Disapprove |
         of |
  Timetable |
        for |
 Withdrawal |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        480       48.24       48.24
          1 |        515       51.76      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |        995      100.00

. /* now merge data from the JCR web-site before any recoding has been
> done to show that the merge produces datasets that are from the same
> study. This dataset includes the four-category measure of approval of
> a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. */
> 
> merge 1:1 caseid using GelpiPOC;

    Result                           # of obs.
    -----------------------------------------
    not matched                             0
    matched                             1,000  (_merge==3)
    -----------------------------------------

. /* show list of variables from the merged dataset */
> 
> list in 1;

     +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | caseid | poseve~s | negeve~s | posbush | negbush | surgeb~r | warsuc~d |
     |      2 |        1 |        0 |       0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
     | disapp~e  | democrat  | republ~n  | bushap~e  | poseve~m  |  negeve~m  |
     |        1  |        0  |        0  | somewhat  |        0  |         0  |
     |-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------------|
     | poseve~p  | negeve~p  | posbus~p  | negbus~p  | posbus~m  |  negbus~m  |
     |        0  |        0  |        0  |        0  |        0  |         0  |
     |-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------------------+------------|
     | tooktr~t  | iraqis~k  | iraqri~t  | iraqwin  |  iraqri~n  |    weight  |
     |        2  |        5  |        1  |       2  |         2  |  .7876363  |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------|
     |  randtrt | eventt~s | bushtr~s  | approv~e  | apptim~e  |      _merge  |
     | treatmen |        1 |        2  |        0  |        0  | matched (3)  |
     +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. tab apptimetable disapptimetable;

4 Category |     Disapprove of
  Approval |     Timetable for
        of |      Withdrawal
 Timetable |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |         0        324 |       324 
         1 |         0        191 |       191 
         2 |       273          0 |       273 
         3 |       207          0 |       207 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |       480        515 |       995 


. /* recode the 4-category timetable variable so that higher values
> reflect the pro-war position (i.e. disapproval of a time table) */
> 
> gen disapptimetable4=3-apptimetable;
(5 missing values generated)

. /* replicate Gelpi's Table 1 Iraq Success results */
> /* results replicate exactly */
> logit warsucc posevents negevents posbush negbush democrat
> republican;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -690.80242  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -558.07525  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -557.56562  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -557.56482  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -557.56482  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        997
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =     266.48
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -557.56482                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1929

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  warsucceed |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6126943   .1794327     3.41   0.001     .2610127     .964376
   negevents |   .0429601   .1816675     0.24   0.813    -.3131016    .3990217
     posbush |   -.096984   .1802549    -0.54   0.591    -.4502771     .256309
     negbush |  -.1721141    .177496    -0.97   0.332    -.5199999    .1757718
    democrat |   -1.04456   .1695925    -6.16   0.000    -1.376955   -.7121644
  republican |   1.859289   .1917698     9.70   0.000     1.483427    2.235151
       _cons |  -.3380454   .1691306    -2.00   0.046    -.6695353   -.0065555
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit warsucc posevents negevents posbush negbush democrat
> republican poseventxdem poseventxrep negeventxdem negeventxrep
> posbushxdem posbushxrep negbushxdem negbushxrep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -690.80242  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -555.5692  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -554.87841  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -554.87533  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -554.87533  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        997
                                                  LR chi2(14)     =     271.85
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -554.87533                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1968

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  warsucceed |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6867945   .2531451     2.71   0.007     .1906393     1.18295
   negevents |   .1736841    .264812     0.66   0.512    -.3453378    .6927061
     posbush |  -.3469245   .2604906    -1.33   0.183    -.8574766    .1636276
     negbush |  -.5004264   .2532903    -1.98   0.048    -.9968662   -.0039866
    democrat |  -1.400655   .3875467    -3.61   0.000    -2.160233   -.6410777
  republican |   1.717653   .4029504     4.26   0.000     .9278844    2.507421
poseventxdem |  -.0057561   .4151866    -0.01   0.989    -.8195069    .8079947
poseventxrep |  -.3279037   .4902731    -0.67   0.504    -1.288821     .633014
negeventxdem |  -.1218965   .4373909    -0.28   0.780    -.9791669    .7353738
negeventxrep |   -.371544   .4619721    -0.80   0.421    -1.276993    .5339046
 posbushxdem |   .6087138   .4174057     1.46   0.145    -.2093863    1.426814
 posbushxrep |   .3450205   .4694581     0.73   0.462    -.5751004    1.265141
 negbushxdem |   .5698375   .4249967     1.34   0.180    -.2631407    1.402816
 negbushxrep |   .7865482   .4645192     1.69   0.090    -.1238927    1.696989
       _cons |  -.2230953   .2134667    -1.05   0.296    -.6414824    .1952917
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* produce my Table 1 */
> 
> tab iraqwin;

   Iraq War |
       will |
    succeed |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        169       16.95       16.95
          1 |        341       34.20       51.15
          2 |        298       29.89       81.04
          3 |        189       18.96      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |        997      100.00

.  tab disapptimetable4;

disapptimet |
      able4 |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        207       20.80       20.80
          1 |        273       27.44       48.24
          2 |        191       19.20       67.44
          3 |        324       32.56      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |        995      100.00

. /* produce my Table 2 */
> 
> tab disapptimetable4 if posevents==0 & negevents==0 & rep==1;

disapptimet |
      able4 |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |          5        5.68        5.68
          1 |          9       10.23       15.91
          2 |         26       29.55       45.45
          3 |         48       54.55      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |         88      100.00

. tab disapptimetable4 if posevents==1 & rep==1;

disapptimet |
      able4 |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |          4        4.12        4.12
          1 |         10       10.31       14.43
          2 |         16       16.49       30.93
          3 |         67       69.07      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |         97      100.00

. tab disapptimetable4 if posbush==0 & negbush==0 & rep==1;

disapptimet |
      able4 |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |          7        7.29        7.29
          1 |         12       12.50       19.79
          2 |         13       13.54       33.33
          3 |         64       66.67      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |         96      100.00

. tab disapptimetable4 if posbush==1 & rep==1;

disapptimet |
      able4 |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |          5        5.75        5.75
          1 |         12       13.79       19.54
          2 |         17       19.54       39.08
          3 |         53       60.92      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |         87      100.00

. /* produce my Table 3 */
> 
> gen ind=(dem==0 & rep==0);

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -367.75526  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -365.12886  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -365.12293  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -365.12293  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       5.26
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.2612
Log likelihood = -365.12293                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0072

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |    .119999   .2622451     0.46   0.647    -.3939919    .6339899
   negevents |  -.3007199   .2546955    -1.18   0.238     -.799914    .1984741
     posbush |   .2718378   .2583896     1.05   0.293    -.2345965    .7782722
     negbush |   .3603981     .26199     1.38   0.169    -.1530928     .873889
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.9809364   .2438702                     -1.458913   -.5029596
       /cut2 |   1.395162   .2522745                      .9007128    1.889611
       /cut3 |   3.647104   .3893605                      2.883972    4.410237
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -497.69016  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -491.82139  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -491.80854  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -491.80854  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        374
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =      11.76
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0192
Log likelihood = -491.80854                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0118

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6448301   .2258773     2.85   0.004     .2021187    1.087542
   negevents |   .1199376   .2348636     0.51   0.610    -.3403867    .5802619
     posbush |  -.1537429   .2346356    -0.66   0.512    -.6136202    .3061345
     negbush |  -.4316625   .2240701    -1.93   0.054    -.8708318    .0075068
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -1.468785    .215026                     -1.890228   -1.047341
       /cut2 |   .2649025   .1984715                     -.1240946    .6538996
       /cut3 |    1.76063   .2212977                      1.326895    2.194366
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -330.91054  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -330.5805  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -330.58045  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -330.58045  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        291
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       0.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.9561
Log likelihood = -330.58045                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0010

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .1878099   .2740415     0.69   0.493    -.3493016    .7249214
   negevents |   .0033553    .272593     0.01   0.990    -.5309172    .5376278
     posbush |  -.0065668   .2817715    -0.02   0.981    -.5588287    .5456951
     negbush |  -.0382764   .2628069    -0.15   0.884    -.5533685    .4768157
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   -2.61685   .3216758                     -3.247323   -1.986377
       /cut2 |  -1.575771   .2689081                     -2.102821   -1.048721
       /cut3 |   .4181177     .25022                     -.0723045    .9085399
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -415.12603  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -414.22324  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -414.22288  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -414.22288  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       1.81
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.7713
Log likelihood = -414.22288                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0022

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.2780746    .252505    -1.10   0.271    -.7729752    .2168261
   negevents |  -.2815412   .2470765    -1.14   0.254    -.7658022    .2027198
     posbush |  -.0907549    .246906    -0.37   0.713    -.5746818    .3931719
     negbush |   .0297879   .2526891     0.12   0.906    -.4654736    .5250494
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.9588601   .2394817                     -1.428236   -.4894846
       /cut2 |   .7970309   .2385372                      .3295066    1.264555
       /cut3 |   2.178799   .2830686                      1.623995    2.733603
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -512.27712  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -507.05073  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -507.04549  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -507.04549  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        374
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =      10.46
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0333
Log likelihood = -507.04549                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0102

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6668556   .2229676     2.99   0.003     .2298472    1.103864
   negevents |   .2009288    .232522     0.86   0.388     -.254806    .6566636
     posbush |   .0491043   .2331709     0.21   0.833    -.4079023    .5061108
     negbush |   -.217409   .2216781    -0.98   0.327    -.6518901    .2170721
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -1.084945   .2039991                     -1.484776   -.6851142
       /cut2 |   .1473856   .1941331                     -.2331084    .5278795
       /cut3 |   1.007656   .2013857                      .6129474    1.402365
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -306.84287  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -304.102  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -304.0932  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -304.0932  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        289
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       5.50
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.2398
Log likelihood =  -304.0932                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0090

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5132228    .294881     1.74   0.082    -.0647333    1.091179
   negevents |  -.0174175   .2825395    -0.06   0.951    -.5711848    .5363497
     posbush |  -.1502842   .3046314    -0.49   0.622    -.7473508    .4467824
     negbush |   -.317725   .2856972    -1.11   0.266    -.8776812    .2422313
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -2.682957   .3332175                     -3.336051   -2.029862
       /cut2 |  -1.425397   .2750248                     -1.964436   -.8863587
       /cut3 |  -.4654989   .2608084                     -.9766741    .0456762
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* produce my Table 5 */
> 
> /* create simple scale that combines party id and approval */
> 
> /* first create a dichotmous measure of Bush approval */
> gen bushapp=0 if bushapprove==3 | bushapprove==4;
(403 missing values generated)

. replace bushapp=1 if bushapprove==1 | bushapprove==2;
(402 real changes made)

. /* then create a scale ranging from Democrats who disapprove of Bush
> to Republicans who approve of Bush */
> gen bushfav=0 if dem==1 & bushapp==0;
(700 missing values generated)

. replace bushfav=1 if ind==1 & bushapp==0;
(243 real changes made)

. replace bushfav=2 if rep==1 & bushapp==0;
(54 real changes made)

. replace bushfav=3 if dem==1 & bushapp==1;
(33 real changes made)

. replace bushfav=4 if ind==1 & bushapp==1;
(132 real changes made)

. replace bushfav=5 if rep==1 & bushapp==1;
(237 real changes made)

. label variable bushfav "Simple Bush Scale";

. label define bushfavv 0 "Dem/Dispp" 1 "Ind/Disapp" 2 "Rep/Disapp" 3
> "Dem/Appr" 4 "Ind/Appr" 5 "Rep/Appr";

. label values bushfav bushfavv;

. /* finally, create the interactions between the scale and the
> experimental treatments */
> gen pecbf=posevents*bushfav;
(1 missing value generated)

.  gen necbf=negevents*bushfav;
(1 missing value generated)

. gen pccbf=posbush*bushfav;
(1 missing value generated)

.  gen nccbf=negbush*bushfav;
(1 missing value generated)

. logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush pecbf necbf
> pccbf nccbf bushfav;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -687.09003  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -485.04737  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -483.2211  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -483.21782  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -483.21782  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        997
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     407.74
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -483.21782                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2967

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .8445252   .3020931     2.80   0.005     .2524337    1.436617
   negevents |   .3446474   .3140748     1.10   0.272    -.2709278    .9602227
     posbush |   -.133682    .295985    -0.45   0.652    -.7138019     .446438
     negbush |   -.080157   .2964757    -0.27   0.787    -.6612386    .5009246
       pecbf |   -.078524   .1114122    -0.70   0.481    -.2968879    .1398399
       necbf |  -.1704869   .1056687    -1.61   0.107    -.3775938    .0366199
       pccbf |   .0552094    .109067     0.51   0.613     -.158558    .2689768
       nccbf |  -.0452989   .1018916    -0.44   0.657    -.2450027    .1544049
     bushfav |   .8121582   .0961168     8.45   0.000     .6237727    1.000544
       _cons |  -2.106114   .2786314    -7.56   0.000    -2.652221   -1.560006
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush pecbf necbf pccbf
> nccbf bushfav;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1069.2648  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1053.4511  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -1053.245  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1053.2449  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     571.34
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1053.2449                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2134

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .2346086   .2170287     1.08   0.280    -.1907598     .659977
   negevents |  -.1379561   .2110796    -0.65   0.513    -.5516644    .2757522
     posbush |   .2652502   .2146228     1.24   0.216    -.1554028    .6859031
     negbush |   .1733512   .2152711     0.81   0.421    -.2485724    .5952748
       pecbf |   .0107574   .0735795     0.15   0.884    -.1334558    .1549706
       necbf |   .0324589   .0728903     0.45   0.656    -.1104034    .1753212
       pccbf |  -.0841303   .0745066    -1.13   0.259    -.2301604    .0618999
       nccbf |  -.1256203   .0716876    -1.75   0.080    -.2661254    .0148847
     bushfav |   .8714933   .0703855    12.38   0.000     .7335401    1.009446
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4231155   .1920795                     -.7995845   -.0466466
       /cut2 |   1.879464   .2025084                      1.482554    2.276373
       /cut3 |   4.231362   .2451267                      3.750922    4.711801
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush pecbf
> necbf pccbf nccbf bushfav;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1180.6903  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1177.5635  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -1177.56  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -1177.56  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     355.94
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =   -1177.56                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1313

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .0075032   .2071127     0.04   0.971    -.3984303    .4134367
   negevents |   -.142014   .2026583    -0.70   0.483    -.5392169    .2551889
     posbush |   .0396208   .2048507     0.19   0.847    -.3618791    .4411207
     negbush |   .0994709     .20721     0.48   0.631    -.3066533     .505595
       pecbf |   .1182895   .0753837     1.57   0.117    -.0294598    .2660387
       necbf |   .0589401    .074187     0.79   0.427    -.0864638    .2043439
       pccbf |  -.0180558   .0783885    -0.23   0.818    -.1716944    .1355828
       nccbf |  -.1444204   .0737274    -1.96   0.050    -.2889234    .0000826
     bushfav |   .5799367   .0676075     8.58   0.000     .4474285     .712445
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4841428   .1871885                     -.8510256   -.1172601
       /cut2 |   1.074114   .1886024                      .7044597    1.443768
       /cut3 |   2.184539   .2007597                      1.791057     2.57802
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* The following section provides commands use to produce the tables
> in the on-line appendix */
> 
> /* Table A1 */
> 
> logit warsucc posevents negevents posbush negbush if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -177.38065  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -174.06329  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -174.02843  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -174.02842  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       6.70
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.1524
Log likelihood = -174.02842                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0189

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  warsucceed |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6810384   .3290859     2.07   0.039      .036042    1.326035
   negevents |   .0517876   .3481169     0.15   0.882     -.630509    .7340841
     posbush |   .2617893   .3261475     0.80   0.422     -.377448    .9010267
     negbush |    .069411   .3412715     0.20   0.839    -.5994688    .7382908
       _cons |  -1.623751   .3234569    -5.02   0.000    -2.257714   -.9897866
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit warsucc posevents negevents posbush negbush if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -257.50174  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -251.96645  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -251.96348  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -251.96348  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        374
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =      11.08
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0257
Log likelihood = -251.96348                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0215

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  warsucceed |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6867945   .2531451     2.71   0.007     .1906393     1.18295
   negevents |   .1736841    .264812     0.66   0.512    -.3453378    .6927061
     posbush |  -.3469245   .2604906    -1.33   0.183    -.8574766    .1636276
     negbush |  -.5004264   .2532903    -1.98   0.048    -.9968662   -.0039866
       _cons |  -.2230953   .2134667    -1.05   0.296    -.6414824    .1952917
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit warsucc posevents negevents posbush negbush if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -130.30549  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -128.89838  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -128.88342  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -128.88342  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        291
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       2.84
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.5842
Log likelihood = -128.88342                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0109

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  warsucceed |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .3588906   .4198635     0.85   0.393    -.4640266    1.181808
   negevents |  -.1978599   .3785404    -0.52   0.601    -.9397854    .5440656
     posbush |   -.001904    .390558    -0.00   0.996    -.7673836    .7635756
     negbush |   .2861217   .3893868     0.73   0.462    -.4770625    1.049306
       _cons |   1.494557   .3417616     4.37   0.000     .8247169    2.164398
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit disapptimetable posevents negevents posbush negbush if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -193.00224  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -192.4215  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -192.42081  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -192.42081  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       1.16
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.8842
Log likelihood = -192.42081                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0030

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~e |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.0249871   .3065651    -0.08   0.935    -.6258437    .5758694
   negevents |  -.1768246   .3072286    -0.58   0.565    -.7789817    .4253325
     posbush |  -.0267284   .3082022    -0.09   0.931    -.6307935    .5773367
     negbush |   .2182114    .309251     0.71   0.480    -.3879093    .8243321
       _cons |  -.9985905   .2827037    -3.53   0.000     -1.55268   -.4445014
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit disapptimetable posevents negevents posbush negbush if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -258.97495  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -253.77506  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -253.77255  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -253.77255  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        374
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =      10.40
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0341
Log likelihood = -253.77255                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0201

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~e |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .7240103   .2521829     2.87   0.004      .229741     1.21828
   negevents |   .1480792   .2604875     0.57   0.570    -.3624668    .6586253
     posbush |   .0800882   .2602953     0.31   0.758    -.4300812    .5902575
     negbush |  -.2281877   .2509196    -0.91   0.363     -.719981    .2636057
       _cons |  -.1673912   .2111164    -0.79   0.428    -.5811718    .2463894
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit disapptimetable posevents negevents posbush negbush if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -143.50032  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -140.11107  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -140.05519  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -140.05518  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        289
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       6.89
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.1418
Log likelihood = -140.05518                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0240

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~e |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .1105022   .4110878     0.27   0.788    -.6952151    .9162194
   negevents |  -.7375698   .3688324    -2.00   0.046    -1.460468   -.0146717
     posbush |   .1643086   .3821534     0.43   0.667    -.5846982    .9133154
     negbush |   .0774903   .3601876     0.22   0.830    -.6284645    .7834451
       _cons |   1.598005   .3446003     4.64   0.000     .9226004    2.273409
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* Table A21 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushfav i.negevents#c.bushfav i.posbush#c.bushfav
> i.negbush#c.bushfav c.bushfav;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1069.2648  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1053.4511  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -1053.245  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1053.2449  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     571.34
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1053.2449                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2134

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .2346086   .2170287     1.08   0.280    -.1907598     .659977
 1.negevents |  -.1379561   .2110796    -0.65   0.513    -.5516644    .2757522
   1.posbush |   .2652502   .2146228     1.24   0.216    -.1554028    .6859031
   1.negbush |   .1733512   .2152711     0.81   0.421    -.2485724    .5952748
             |
   posevents#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |   .0107574   .0735795     0.15   0.884    -.1334558    .1549706
             |
   negevents#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |   .0324589   .0728903     0.45   0.656    -.1104034    .1753212
             |
     posbush#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |  -.0841303   .0745066    -1.13   0.259    -.2301604    .0618999
             |
     negbush#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |  -.1256203   .0716876    -1.75   0.080    -.2661254    .0148847
             |
     bushfav |   .8714933   .0703855    12.38   0.000     .7335401    1.009446
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4231155   .1920795                     -.7995845   -.0466466
       /cut2 |   1.879464   .2025084                      1.482554    2.276373
       /cut3 |   4.231362   .2451267                      3.750922    4.711801
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get significance of difference for negbush for ind and Rep who
> approve */
> 
> margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(0)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        2.55     0.1106
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        2.72     0.0988
      Joint  |          2        2.73     0.2559
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0074565   .0046736     -.0002309    .0151438
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0047287   .0028646      .0000168    .0094406
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(1)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        2.78     0.0956
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        3.01     0.0830
      Joint  |          2        3.01     0.2224
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0434664   .0260777      .0005724    .0863603
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0346397    .019981      .0017739    .0675055
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(2)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        1.58     0.2092
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        3.38     0.0662
      Joint  |          2        3.53     0.1712
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0163594    .013026     -.0050664    .0377852
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0735459   .0400309      .0077009    .1393909
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(3)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        2.88     0.0898
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        3.43     0.0639
      Joint  |          2        3.62     0.1633
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |  -.0672822   .0396563     -.1325111   -.0020534
 (1 vs 0) 2  |  -.1129143   .0609449     -.2131597   -.0126689
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get results for negative events and cues */
> margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3957715   .0459332     8.62   0.000      .305744    .4857989
          2  |   .2150737   .0267198     8.05   0.000     .1627039    .2674436
          3  |   .1028361   .0140275     7.33   0.000     .0753426    .1303296
          4  |    .045756   .0076988     5.94   0.000     .0306668    .0608453
          5  |   .0196643   .0042661     4.61   0.000      .011303    .0280257
          6  |   .0083213   .0022863     3.64   0.000     .0038402    .0128024
          7  |   .3551525   .0469354     7.57   0.000     .2631608    .4471441
          8  |   .2071256   .0277002     7.48   0.000     .1528342    .2614169
          9  |   .1102478   .0155773     7.08   0.000     .0797168    .1407788
         10  |   .0555098    .009423     5.89   0.000     .0370411    .0739785
         11  |   .0271208   .0058826     4.61   0.000     .0155912    .0386504
         12  |     .01305   .0035839     3.64   0.000     .0060258    .0200742
         13  |   .4291893   .0481883     8.91   0.000     .3347419    .5236367
         14  |   .2334179   .0289994     8.05   0.000     .1765801    .2902556
         15  |   .1097728    .015298     7.18   0.000     .0797893    .1397563
         16  |   .0475609   .0082801     5.74   0.000     .0313322    .0637896
         17  |   .0198215    .004472     4.43   0.000     .0110565    .0285865
         18  |   .0081228   .0023242     3.49   0.000     .0035675    .0126781
         19  |   .3873392   .0467693     8.28   0.000     .2956731    .4790053
         20  |   .2249861   .0283087     7.95   0.000      .169502    .2804702
         21  |   .1176189   .0159326     7.38   0.000     .0863916    .1488462
         22  |   .0576761    .009487     6.08   0.000     .0390819    .0762703
         23  |   .0273359   .0057683     4.74   0.000     .0160303    .0386415
         24  |   .0127402   .0034066     3.74   0.000     .0060634     .019417
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .471778   .0291586    16.18   0.000     .4146283    .5289278
          2  |    .517549    .020739    24.96   0.000     .4769014    .5581967
          3  |   .4312303   .0271195    15.90   0.000      .378077    .4843836
          4  |   .2783389   .0287313     9.69   0.000     .2220266    .3346512
          5  |   .1474095   .0238713     6.18   0.000     .1006225    .1941964
          6  |   .0690934   .0158889     4.35   0.000     .0379518    .1002351
          7  |   .4911789   .0271927    18.06   0.000     .4378822    .5444756
          8  |   .5160442   .0210255    24.54   0.000     .4748351    .5572534
          9  |   .4431396   .0271084    16.35   0.000     .3900082     .496271
         10  |   .3146558   .0304312    10.34   0.000     .2550117    .3742999
         11  |   .1908758   .0290605     6.57   0.000     .1339184    .2478333
         12  |   .1037331   .0229104     4.53   0.000     .0588296    .1486367
         13  |   .4534246   .0317912    14.26   0.000     .3911149    .5157343
         14  |   .5193572   .0203681    25.50   0.000     .4794365    .5592779
         15  |   .4424153   .0276403    16.01   0.000     .3882412    .4965893
         16  |    .285486   .0305758     9.34   0.000     .2255584    .3454135
         17  |   .1483854   .0252867     5.87   0.000     .0988245    .1979464
         18  |   .0675714    .016365     4.13   0.000     .0354966    .0996461
         19  |     .47609   .0289874    16.42   0.000     .4192756    .5329043
         20  |   .5187992   .0204917    25.32   0.000     .4786362    .5589623
         21  |   .4537418   .0262838    17.26   0.000     .4022264    .5052571
         22  |   .3219991   .0299515    10.75   0.000     .2632953     .380703
         23  |   .1920483   .0283608     6.77   0.000     .1364622    .2476344
         24  |   .1015558   .0218072     4.66   0.000     .0588146    .1442971
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1181261   .0204225     5.78   0.000     .0780987    .1581534
          2  |   .2338037   .0269181     8.69   0.000     .1810452    .2865622
          3  |   .3892564   .0292319    13.32   0.000      .331963    .4465498
          4  |   .5102697   .0258917    19.71   0.000     .4595229    .5610165
          5  |   .5110992   .0257721    19.83   0.000     .4605869    .5616116
          6  |   .3911008   .0421333     9.28   0.000      .308521    .4736806
          7  |   .1366789   .0240929     5.67   0.000     .0894576    .1839001
          8  |   .2416731   .0286605     8.43   0.000     .1854994    .2978467
          9  |   .3752712    .029919    12.54   0.000     .3166312    .4339113
         10  |   .4904475   .0277167    17.70   0.000     .4361237    .5447712
         11  |   .5274586   .0235772    22.37   0.000     .4812481    .5736691
         12  |   .4646467   .0375799    12.36   0.000     .3909914    .5383019
         13  |   .1048844   .0191376     5.48   0.000     .0673754    .1423935
         14  |   .2169111   .0267689     8.10   0.000     .1644451    .2693771
         15  |   .3761484   .0304978    12.33   0.000     .3163739     .435923
         16  |   .5068501   .0267652    18.94   0.000     .4543912     .559309
         17  |   .5117359   .0260899    19.61   0.000     .4606006    .5628712
         18  |   .3867658   .0445918     8.67   0.000     .2993674    .4741641
         19  |    .121738   .0214558     5.67   0.000     .0796853    .1637906
         20  |   .2244658   .0269622     8.33   0.000     .1716209    .2773107
         21  |   .3619879   .0294436    12.29   0.000     .3042795    .4196964
         22  |   .4857349   .0279001    17.41   0.000     .4310516    .5404181
         23  |   .5276089    .023519    22.43   0.000     .4815125    .5737053
         24  |   .4611991   .0368945    12.50   0.000     .3888872    .5335109
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0143244    .003461     4.14   0.000      .007541    .0211079
          2  |   .0335735   .0063696     5.27   0.000     .0210894    .0460576
          3  |   .0766772    .011611     6.60   0.000       .05392    .0994343
          4  |   .1656354    .021923     7.56   0.000     .1226672    .2086036
          5  |    .321827   .0398513     8.08   0.000     .2437198    .3999341
          6  |   .5314845   .0564669     9.41   0.000     .4208113    .6421576
          7  |   .0169897   .0042314     4.02   0.000     .0086964    .0252831
          8  |   .0351571   .0069465     5.06   0.000     .0215423     .048772
          9  |   .0713414   .0114751     6.22   0.000     .0488507    .0938321
         10  |   .1393869   .0202087     6.90   0.000     .0997785    .1789953
         11  |   .2545447   .0365384     6.97   0.000     .1829307    .3261587
         12  |   .4185702   .0576407     7.26   0.000     .3055965    .5315439
         13  |   .0125016   .0030913     4.04   0.000     .0064428    .0185604
         14  |   .0303139    .005907     5.13   0.000     .0187365    .0418914
         15  |   .0716635   .0112759     6.36   0.000     .0495632    .0937637
         16  |   .1601031   .0223955     7.15   0.000     .1162087    .2039975
         17  |   .3200572   .0420932     7.60   0.000     .2375561    .4025583
         18  |     .53754   .0597411     9.00   0.000     .4204496    .6546304
         19  |   .0148329   .0036342     4.08   0.000       .00771    .0219557
         20  |   .0317489   .0061844     5.13   0.000     .0196276    .0438701
         21  |   .0666514   .0105553     6.31   0.000     .0459633    .0873395
         22  |   .1345899   .0190676     7.06   0.000     .0972181    .1719618
         23  |   .2530069   .0351052     7.21   0.000      .184202    .3218119
         24  |   .4245049   .0556544     7.63   0.000     .3154244    .5335854
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavi=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue for
> Democrats who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of Bush,
> and so forth through Republicans who approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavi;

bushfavi[18,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .39577147  .47177804  .11812607  .01432442
 r2  .42918933  .45342462  .10488444  .01250161
 r3  .35515247  .49117891  .13667889  .01698973
 r4  .21507374  .51754903  .23380373   .0335735
 r5  .23341786  .51935716  .21691106  .03031392
 r6  .20712556   .5160442  .24167309  .03515714
 r7   .1028361  .43123033  .38925641  .07667716
 r8  .10977282  .44241528  .37614844  .07166346
 r9  .11024778  .44313959  .37527124  .07134139
r10  .04575605  .27833889   .5102697  .16563536
r11  .04756086  .28548597  .50685007   .1601031
r12  .05550981  .31465582  .49044748   .1393869
r13  .01966433  .14740947  .51109924  .32182695
r14  .01982149  .14838542   .5117359  .32005719
r15  .02712081  .19087585  .52745862  .25454472
r16  .00832129  .06909345  .39110079  .53148448
r17  .00812283  .06757139  .38676576  .53754002
r18     .01305  .10373313  .46464669  .41857019

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavi;

. /* get results for positive events and cues */
> margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3957715   .0459332     8.62   0.000      .305744    .4857989
          2  |   .2150737   .0267198     8.05   0.000     .1627039    .2674436
          3  |   .1028361   .0140275     7.33   0.000     .0753426    .1303296
          4  |    .045756   .0076988     5.94   0.000     .0306668    .0608453
          5  |   .0196643   .0042661     4.61   0.000      .011303    .0280257
          6  |   .0083213   .0022863     3.64   0.000     .0038402    .0128024
          7  |   .3343967   .0435358     7.68   0.000     .2490681    .4197253
          8  |   .1860734   .0246183     7.56   0.000     .1378224    .2343245
          9  |   .0942262   .0137151     6.87   0.000      .067345    .1211073
         10  |   .0451978   .0082404     5.48   0.000     .0290469    .0613488
         11  |   .0210863   .0049856     4.23   0.000     .0113147     .030858
         12  |   .0097067   .0029069     3.34   0.001     .0040093    .0154042
         13  |    .341251   .0476996     7.15   0.000     .2477615    .4347406
         14  |   .1765389   .0253552     6.96   0.000     .1268436    .2262342
         15  |   .0814935   .0122458     6.65   0.000     .0574921    .1054949
         16  |    .035418   .0063047     5.62   0.000     .0230609     .047775
         17  |   .0149685   .0033718     4.44   0.000     .0083598    .0215771
         18  |   .0062495   .0017728     3.53   0.000     .0027749    .0097242
         19  |   .2843523   .0423139     6.72   0.000     .2014185     .367286
         20  |   .1517302   .0222997     6.80   0.000     .1080236    .1954368
         21  |   .0745221   .0114563     6.50   0.000     .0520682     .096976
         22  |   .0349812   .0064013     5.46   0.000     .0224348    .0475276
         23  |   .0160565   .0037091     4.33   0.000     .0087869    .0233261
         24  |   .0072926   .0021115     3.45   0.001     .0031542     .011431
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .471778   .0291586    16.18   0.000     .4146283    .5289278
          2  |    .517549    .020739    24.96   0.000     .4769014    .5581967
          3  |   .4312303   .0271195    15.90   0.000      .378077    .4843836
          4  |   .2783389   .0287313     9.69   0.000     .2220266    .3346512
          5  |   .1474095   .0238713     6.18   0.000     .1006225    .1941964
          6  |   .0690934   .0158889     4.35   0.000     .0379518    .1002351
          7  |   .4995988   .0249215    20.05   0.000     .4507536    .5484441
          8  |   .5096151   .0220333    23.13   0.000     .4664307    .5527996
          9  |   .4156444   .0284943    14.59   0.000     .3597967    .4714922
         10  |   .2760866   .0311742     8.86   0.000     .2149863    .3371868
         11  |   .1561422   .0277401     5.63   0.000     .1017725    .2105119
         12  |   .0795616   .0200812     3.96   0.000     .0402032      .11892
         13  |   .4969435    .026685    18.62   0.000     .4446419     .549245
         14  |     .50538   .0229259    22.04   0.000      .460446    .5503139
         15  |   .3886306   .0291753    13.32   0.000     .3314481    .4458131
         16  |   .2331507   .0271736     8.58   0.000     .1798915    .2864099
         17  |   .1169447   .0204673     5.71   0.000     .0768295      .15706
         18  |   .0529177   .0128602     4.11   0.000     .0277122    .0781231
         19  |   .5145753    .021926    23.47   0.000     .4716012    .5575494
         20  |   .4896787   .0248681    19.69   0.000     .4409381    .5384193
         21  |   .3715298   .0293221    12.67   0.000     .3140596        .429
         22  |   .2310688   .0277534     8.33   0.000     .1766732    .2854645
         23  |   .1242343   .0222313     5.59   0.000     .0806619    .1678068
         24  |   .0611414    .015133     4.04   0.000     .0314813    .0908015
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1181261   .0204225     5.78   0.000     .0780987    .1581534
          2  |   .2338037   .0269181     8.69   0.000     .1810452    .2865622
          3  |   .3892564   .0292319    13.32   0.000      .331963    .4465498
          4  |   .5102697   .0258917    19.71   0.000     .4595229    .5610165
          5  |   .5110992   .0257721    19.83   0.000     .4605869    .5616116
          6  |   .3911008   .0421333     9.28   0.000      .308521    .4736806
          7  |   .1474098   .0243547     6.05   0.000     .0996754    .1951442
          8  |   .2643381    .028852     9.16   0.000     .2077892     .320887
          9  |   .4062974   .0300054    13.54   0.000     .3474879     .465107
         10  |   .5112954   .0262795    19.46   0.000     .4597885    .5628024
         11  |   .5162982   .0259731    19.88   0.000     .4653918    .5672047
         12  |   .4180552     .04609     9.07   0.000     .3277205      .50839
         13  |   .1437619   .0255795     5.62   0.000      .093627    .1938968
         14  |   .2755681   .0311343     8.85   0.000      .214546    .3365901
         15  |   .4329845   .0296185    14.62   0.000     .3749334    .4910356
         16  |   .5255612   .0241118    21.80   0.000      .478303    .5728193
         17  |    .482938   .0294246    16.41   0.000     .4252668    .5406091
         18  |   .3386663    .043536     7.78   0.000     .2533374    .4239953
         19  |   .1776761   .0288864     6.15   0.000     .1210599    .2342924
         20  |   .3080633   .0316453     9.73   0.000     .2460396     .370087
         21  |   .4482316   .0289871    15.46   0.000     .3914179    .5050454
         22  |   .5259694   .0240246    21.89   0.000     .4788821    .5730567
         23  |   .4912939    .029327    16.75   0.000      .433814    .5487738
         24  |   .3671512    .045431     8.08   0.000     .2781081    .4561942
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0143244    .003461     4.14   0.000      .007541    .0211079
          2  |   .0335735   .0063696     5.27   0.000     .0210894    .0460576
          3  |   .0766772    .011611     6.60   0.000       .05392    .0994343
          4  |   .1656354    .021923     7.56   0.000     .1226672    .2086036
          5  |    .321827   .0398513     8.08   0.000     .2437198    .3999341
          6  |   .5314845   .0564669     9.41   0.000     .4208113    .6421576
          7  |   .0185947   .0044454     4.18   0.000     .0098819    .0273074
          8  |   .0399733   .0075327     5.31   0.000     .0252095    .0547372
          9  |    .083832   .0130697     6.41   0.000     .0582158    .1094482
         10  |   .1674202   .0243926     6.86   0.000     .1196116    .2152288
         11  |   .3064732   .0443435     6.91   0.000     .2195616    .3933848
         12  |   .4926764   .0650179     7.58   0.000     .3652437    .6201091
         13  |   .0180437   .0045313     3.98   0.000     .0091625    .0269248
         14  |    .042513   .0082568     5.15   0.000       .02633     .058696
         15  |   .0968914   .0145979     6.64   0.000       .06828    .1255029
         16  |   .2058702   .0260893     7.89   0.000     .1547361    .2570043
         17  |   .3851488   .0436961     8.81   0.000      .299506    .4707917
         18  |   .6021665    .055451    10.86   0.000     .4934845    .7108484
         19  |   .0233963   .0056666     4.13   0.000       .01229    .0345027
         20  |   .0505278   .0095182     5.31   0.000     .0318724    .0691832
         21  |   .1057165   .0158232     6.68   0.000     .0747036    .1367294
         22  |   .2079805   .0272939     7.62   0.000     .1544854    .2614755
         23  |   .3684153   .0451727     8.16   0.000     .2798784    .4569522
         24  |   .5644148   .0595729     9.47   0.000      .447654    .6811756
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavi=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, positive event, and positive cue for
> Democrats who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of Bush,
> and so forth through Republicans who approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavi;

bushfavi[18,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .39577147  .47177804  .11812607  .01432442
 r2  .34125104  .49694345  .14376186  .01804365
 r3  .33439673  .49959883  .14740979  .01859465
 r4  .21507374  .51754903  .23380373   .0335735
 r5  .17653894  .50537998  .27556808  .04251299
 r6  .18607344  .50961514  .26433808  .03997334
 r7   .1028361  .43123033  .38925641  .07667716
 r8  .08149352  .38863057  .43298448  .09689143
 r9  .09422617  .41564443  .40629743  .08383196
r10  .04575605  .27833889   .5102697  .16563536
r11  .03541795  .23315069  .52556116   .2058702
r12  .04519785  .27608656  .51129542  .16742018
r13  .01966433  .14740947  .51109924  .32182695
r14  .01496848  .11694473  .48293796  .38514883
r15  .02108635  .15614218  .51629824  .30647323
r16  .00832129  .06909345  .39110079  .53148448
r17  .00624955  .05291765  .33866635  .60216645
r18  .00970674   .0795616  .41805525  .49267642

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavi;

. /* Table A22 */
> 
> ologit disapptimetable4 i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushfav i.negevents#c.bushfav i.posbush#c.bushfav
> i.negbush#c.bushfav c.bushfav;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1180.6903  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1177.5635  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -1177.56  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -1177.56  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     355.94
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =   -1177.56                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1313

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .0075032   .2071127     0.04   0.971    -.3984303    .4134367
 1.negevents |   -.142014   .2026583    -0.70   0.483    -.5392169    .2551889
   1.posbush |   .0396208   .2048507     0.19   0.847    -.3618791    .4411207
   1.negbush |   .0994709     .20721     0.48   0.631    -.3066533     .505595
             |
   posevents#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |   .1182895   .0753837     1.57   0.117    -.0294598    .2660387
             |
   negevents#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |   .0589401    .074187     0.79   0.427    -.0864638    .2043439
             |
     posbush#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |  -.0180558   .0783885    -0.23   0.818    -.1716944    .1355828
             |
     negbush#|
   c.bushfav |
          1  |  -.1444204   .0737274    -1.96   0.050    -.2889234    .0000826
             |
     bushfav |   .5799367   .0676075     8.58   0.000     .4474285     .712445
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4841428   .1871885                     -.8510256   -.1172601
       /cut2 |   1.074114   .1886024                      .7044597    1.443768
       /cut3 |   2.184539   .2007597                      1.791057     2.57802
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get significance of difference for negbush for ind and Rep who
> approve */
> 
> margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(0)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        4.65     0.0310
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        4.38     0.0363
      Joint  |          2        4.66     0.0974
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0319041   .0147878      .0075804    .0562279
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0266527   .0127327      .0057093    .0475961
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(1)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        5.32     0.0211
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        5.22     0.0223
      Joint  |          2        5.36     0.0686
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0616759   .0267403      .0176921    .1056597
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0655333   .0286726      .0183711    .1126955
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(2)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        3.62     0.0572
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        5.43     0.0198
      Joint  |          2        5.76     0.0561
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |   .0250904   .0131924      .0033908    .0467899
 (1 vs 0) 2  |   .0562391   .0241288      .0165507    .0959274
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  margins r.negbush, at(posevents=0 negevents=0 posbush=0
> bushfav=(4(1)5)) predict(outcome(3)) level(90);

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |          1        5.39     0.0202
 (1 vs 0) 2  |          1        5.61     0.0178
      Joint  |          2        5.62     0.0603
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [90% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
 negbush@_at |
 (1 vs 0) 1  |  -.1186704   .0510988     -.2027204   -.0346203
 (1 vs 0) 2  |  -.1484251   .0626459     -.2514684   -.0453818
--------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get effects for negative events and cues */
> margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3812743   .0441586     8.63   0.000     .2947251    .4678235
          2  |   .2565306   .0290806     8.82   0.000     .1995338    .3135275
          3  |   .1619193   .0194766     8.31   0.000     .1237458    .2000928
          4  |     .09762   .0144994     6.73   0.000     .0692018    .1260383
          5  |   .0571143   .0111314     5.13   0.000     .0352972    .0789315
          6  |   .0328048   .0082434     3.98   0.000      .016648    .0489616
          7  |   .3581015   .0452863     7.91   0.000     .2693421    .4468609
          8  |   .2651969   .0312997     8.47   0.000     .2038506    .3265432
          9  |   .1892875   .0227526     8.32   0.000     .1446932    .2338819
         10  |   .1312259   .0188596     6.96   0.000     .0942618    .1681901
         11  |   .0890185   .0166091     5.36   0.000     .0564652    .1215717
         12  |   .0594575   .0143372     4.15   0.000     .0313571    .0875579
         13  |   .4152925   .0458142     9.06   0.000     .3254982    .5050867
         14  |   .2726923   .0306371     8.90   0.000     .2126447    .3327399
         15  |   .1652211   .0206981     7.98   0.000     .1246535    .2057887
         16  |   .0945966   .0152187     6.22   0.000     .0647685    .1244246
         17  |   .0522705   .0111894     4.67   0.000     .0303397    .0742014
         18  |    .028291   .0078171     3.62   0.000     .0129697    .0436123
         19  |   .3913599   .0455484     8.59   0.000     .3020867    .4806331
         20  |   .2816977   .0315643     8.92   0.000     .2198329    .3435625
         21  |   .1930189    .022559     8.56   0.000      .148804    .2372338
         22  |   .1273085   .0180829     7.04   0.000     .0918668    .1627503
         23  |   .0817034   .0151697     5.39   0.000     .0519713    .1114355
         24  |   .0514716   .0123649     4.16   0.000     .0272369    .0757063
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3641041   .0198748    18.32   0.000     .3251501    .4030581
          2  |   .3645593   .0190372    19.15   0.000      .327247    .4018715
          3  |   .3166539   .0210868    15.02   0.000     .2753245    .3579832
          4  |   .2418411   .0229666    10.53   0.000     .1968273    .2868549
          5  |   .1663426   .0238531     6.97   0.000     .1195914    .2130938
          6  |   .1059621    .021825     4.86   0.000      .063186    .1487382
          7  |   .3679424   .0192192    19.14   0.000     .3302734    .4056114
          8  |   .3664123   .0188319    19.46   0.000     .3295025    .4033221
          9  |   .3365919   .0204407    16.47   0.000     .2965289    .3766549
         10  |    .286551   .0231579    12.37   0.000     .2411624    .3319396
         11  |   .2280185   .0272982     8.35   0.000      .174515     .281522
         12  |   .1714954   .0300973     5.70   0.000     .1125058    .2304849
         13  |   .3560889   .0212325    16.77   0.000     .3144739    .3977039
         14  |   .3677423   .0188453    19.51   0.000     .3308061    .4046784
         15  |   .3193773     .02199    14.52   0.000     .2762778    .3624768
         16  |   .2371042   .0249283     9.51   0.000     .1882456    .2859628
         17  |   .1553416   .0252979     6.14   0.000     .1057585    .2049246
         18  |   .0932138   .0217643     4.28   0.000     .0505565    .1358712
         19  |   .3620082   .0203145    17.82   0.000     .3221926    .4018238
         20  |   .3690211   .0186096    19.83   0.000      .332547    .4054952
         21  |   .3388738   .0204751    16.55   0.000     .2987432    .3790043
         22  |   .2820272   .0232685    12.12   0.000     .2364217    .3276327
         23  |   .2153919   .0266815     8.07   0.000      .163097    .2676867
         24  |   .1534807    .027885     5.50   0.000     .0988271    .2081342
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .153474   .0200797     7.64   0.000     .1141186    .1928294
          2  |   .2115707   .0187456    11.29   0.000       .17483    .2483113
          3  |   .2573071   .0177966    14.46   0.000     .2224265    .2921878
          4  |    .269924   .0175024    15.42   0.000       .23562     .304228
          5  |   .2427924   .0204531    11.87   0.000      .202705    .2828798
          6  |   .1896961   .0261748     7.25   0.000     .1383944    .2409979
          7  |   .1633994   .0213917     7.64   0.000     .1214725    .2053263
          8  |   .2072212   .0192005    10.79   0.000      .169589    .2448534
          9  |   .2451327   .0181364    13.52   0.000      .209586    .2806795
         10  |   .2675839   .0176944    15.12   0.000     .2329036    .3022642
         11  |   .2678827   .0178327    15.02   0.000     .2329312    .3028343
         12  |   .2459352   .0227145    10.83   0.000     .2014157    .2904547
         13  |    .139671   .0195329     7.15   0.000     .1013873    .1779547
         14  |   .2034837   .0190924    10.66   0.000     .1660633    .2409041
         15  |   .2559458   .0181263    14.12   0.000      .220419    .2914726
         16  |   .2693685   .0175665    15.33   0.000     .2349388    .3037981
         17  |    .235398   .0222253    10.59   0.000     .1918372    .2789587
         18  |   .1742009   .0283591     6.14   0.000     .1186181    .2297837
         19  |   .1492872   .0203105     7.35   0.000     .1094794     .189095
         20  |   .1990291       .019    10.48   0.000     .1617899    .2362683
         21  |   .2433525   .0181823    13.38   0.000     .2077158    .2789891
         22  |   .2684715   .0176446    15.22   0.000     .2338887    .3030543
         23  |   .2648982   .0181947    14.56   0.000     .2292373    .3005591
         24  |    .234053   .0239804     9.76   0.000     .1870522    .2810538
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1011476   .0182524     5.54   0.000     .0653735    .1369216
          2  |   .1673394    .022181     7.54   0.000     .1238654    .2108135
          3  |   .2641197   .0271549     9.73   0.000     .2108971    .3173423
          4  |   .3906149   .0359741    10.86   0.000      .320107    .4611228
          5  |   .5337507   .0467579    11.42   0.000      .442107    .6253944
          6  |    .671537   .0526176    12.76   0.000     .5684084    .7746657
          7  |   .1105567   .0204921     5.40   0.000     .0703929    .1507204
          8  |   .1611696   .0225138     7.16   0.000     .1170433    .2052958
          9  |   .2289879   .0257281     8.90   0.000     .1785618    .2794139
         10  |   .3146392   .0333641     9.43   0.000     .2492468    .3800316
         11  |   .4150803   .0459634     9.03   0.000     .3249936     .505167
         12  |    .523112   .0595282     8.79   0.000     .4064388    .6397851
         13  |   .0889476   .0165721     5.37   0.000     .0564669    .1214284
         14  |   .1560817   .0215231     7.25   0.000     .1138973    .1982662
         15  |   .2594558     .02848     9.11   0.000      .203636    .3152756
         16  |   .3989308   .0398621    10.01   0.000     .3208024    .4770591
         17  |   .5569899   .0515793    10.80   0.000     .4558964    .6580834
         18  |   .7042943   .0551591    12.77   0.000     .5961843    .8124042
         19  |   .0973448   .0180375     5.40   0.000      .061992    .1326976
         20  |   .1502521   .0209839     7.16   0.000     .1091244    .1913798
         21  |   .2247549   .0251039     8.95   0.000     .1755521    .2739576
         22  |   .3221928   .0333907     9.65   0.000     .2567482    .3876374
         23  |   .4380066   .0459671     9.53   0.000     .3479127    .5281005
         24  |   .5609947   .0578828     9.69   0.000     .4475465     .674443
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue for
> Democrats who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of Bush,
> and so forth through Republicans who approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[18,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .38127433  .36410409  .15347403  .10114755
 r2  .41529245  .35608891    .139671  .08894763
 r3  .35810151  .36794242  .16339941  .11055666
 r4  .25653062  .36455929  .21157067  .16733943
 r5  .27269229  .36774228  .20348368  .15608174
 r6   .2651969  .36641228  .20722123  .16116959
 r7   .1619193  .31665386  .25730714  .26411969
 r8  .16522109   .3193773  .25594582   .2594558
 r9  .18928753  .33659186  .24513274  .22898786
r10  .09762003  .24184109  .26992401  .39061487
r11  .09459659  .23710418  .26936845  .39893078
r12  .13122593  .28655097  .26758389   .3146392
r13  .05711434  .16634261  .24279236  .53375069
r14  .05227055  .15534156  .23539797  .55698991
r15  .08901846  .22801849  .26788273  .41508032
r16  .03280477  .10596209  .18969611  .67153704
r17    .028291  .09321384  .17420091  .70429425
r18  .05945749  .17149535  .24593519  .52311196

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. /* get effects for positive events and cues */
> margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3812743   .0441586     8.63   0.000     .2947251    .4678235
          2  |   .2565306   .0290806     8.82   0.000     .1995338    .3135275
          3  |   .1619193   .0194766     8.31   0.000     .1237458    .2000928
          4  |     .09762   .0144994     6.73   0.000     .0692018    .1260383
          5  |   .0571143   .0111314     5.13   0.000     .0352972    .0789315
          6  |   .0328048   .0082434     3.98   0.000      .016648    .0489616
          7  |   .3719726   .0430399     8.64   0.000     .2876159    .4563293
          8  |   .2524393   .0285492     8.84   0.000     .1964839    .3083947
          9  |   .1614437   .0203218     7.94   0.000     .1216136    .2012737
         10  |    .098909   .0161619     6.12   0.000     .0672322    .1305857
         11  |   .0588956   .0128726     4.58   0.000     .0336657    .0841255
         12  |   .0344507   .0097376     3.54   0.000     .0153653     .053536
         13  |   .3795059   .0473018     8.02   0.000     .2867961    .4722157
         14  |   .2332818   .0291563     8.00   0.000     .1761365    .2904271
         15  |   .1314614   .0175782     7.48   0.000     .0970088    .1659141
         16  |   .0700238   .0116011     6.04   0.000     .0472861    .0927614
         17  |    .036105   .0078345     4.61   0.000     .0207498    .0514603
         18  |    .018293   .0050961     3.59   0.000     .0083048    .0282811
         19  |   .3702215   .0457469     8.09   0.000     .2805593    .4598837
         20  |   .2294468   .0284848     8.06   0.000     .1736176    .2852761
         21  |   .1310613   .0177093     7.40   0.000     .0963517    .1657708
         22  |    .070977   .0120089     5.91   0.000     .0474399     .094514
         23  |   .0372569   .0082513     4.52   0.000     .0210847    .0534291
         24  |   .0192252   .0054464     3.53   0.000     .0085505    .0298999
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3641041   .0198748    18.32   0.000     .3251501    .4030581
          2  |   .3645593   .0190372    19.15   0.000      .327247    .4018715
          3  |   .3166539   .0210868    15.02   0.000     .2753245    .3579832
          4  |   .2418411   .0229666    10.53   0.000     .1968273    .2868549
          5  |   .1663426   .0238531     6.97   0.000     .1195914    .2130938
          6  |   .1059621    .021825     4.86   0.000      .063186    .1487382
          7  |   .3658134   .0194459    18.81   0.000        .3277    .4039268
          8  |   .3635624   .0191315    19.00   0.000     .3260653    .4010595
          9  |   .3162539   .0216399    14.61   0.000     .2738405    .3586672
         10  |   .2438215   .0251386     9.70   0.000     .1945506    .2930923
         11  |   .1702696   .0272855     6.24   0.000      .116791    .2237481
         12  |   .1104819   .0255819     4.32   0.000     .0603423    .1606214
         13  |   .3644459   .0201056    18.13   0.000     .3250396    .4038522
         14  |   .3577867   .0200493    17.85   0.000     .3184908    .3970826
         15  |   .2868176   .0226987    12.64   0.000     .2423291    .3313062
         16  |   .1934351   .0227358     8.51   0.000     .1488737    .2379965
         17  |   .1149572   .0201993     5.69   0.000     .0753673     .154547
         18  |   .0630289   .0154632     4.08   0.000     .0327217    .0933362
         19  |   .3661104   .0195921    18.69   0.000     .3277105    .4045102
         20  |   .3563992   .0201567    17.68   0.000     .3168927    .3959056
         21  |   .2863642   .0228295    12.54   0.000     .2416191    .3311092
         22  |   .1953143   .0232792     8.39   0.000     .1496879    .2409407
         23  |    .118034   .0210278     5.61   0.000     .0768202    .1592477
         24  |   .0659624   .0163663     4.03   0.000      .033885    .0980398
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |    .153474   .0200797     7.64   0.000     .1141186    .1928294
          2  |   .2115707   .0187456    11.29   0.000       .17483    .2483113
          3  |   .2573071   .0177966    14.46   0.000     .2224265    .2921878
          4  |    .269924   .0175024    15.42   0.000       .23562     .304228
          5  |   .2427924   .0204531    11.87   0.000      .202705    .2828798
          6  |   .1896961   .0261748     7.25   0.000     .1383944    .2409979
          7  |   .1574069   .0200776     7.84   0.000     .1180555    .1967583
          8  |   .2136324   .0186886    11.43   0.000     .1770034    .2502614
          9  |   .2575002   .0179573    14.34   0.000     .2223046    .2926958
         10  |   .2701117   .0175121    15.42   0.000     .2357886    .3044349
         11  |   .2452058   .0216537    11.32   0.000     .2027653    .2876462
         12  |   .1947998   .0294375     6.62   0.000     .1371035    .2524962
         13  |   .1542165   .0214508     7.19   0.000     .1121736    .1962593
         14  |   .2233242   .0195881    11.40   0.000     .1849323     .261716
         15  |   .2675267   .0176322    15.17   0.000     .2329682    .3020852
         16  |   .2571188   .0185054    13.89   0.000     .2208489    .2933886
         17  |   .1996593   .0232667     8.58   0.000     .1540574    .2452612
         18  |   .1304804   .0248874     5.24   0.000      .081702    .1792589
         19  |    .158155   .0212916     7.43   0.000     .1164241    .1998859
         20  |   .2252648   .0194513    11.58   0.000     .1871409    .2633887
         21  |   .2676236   .0176406    15.17   0.000     .2330488    .3021985
         22  |   .2579157   .0185462    13.91   0.000     .2215659    .2942655
         23  |   .2028903   .0236765     8.57   0.000     .1564852    .2492953
         24  |   .1351951   .0258449     5.23   0.000       .08454    .1858501
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. margins, at(bushfav=(0(1)5) posbush=(0(1)1) posevents=(0(1)1) 
> negevents=0 negbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

13._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

17._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

18._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

19._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           0

20._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           1

21._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           2

22._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           3

23._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           4

24._at       : posevents       =           1
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           1
               negbush         =           0
               bushfav         =           5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1011476   .0182524     5.54   0.000     .0653735    .1369216
          2  |   .1673394    .022181     7.54   0.000     .1238654    .2108135
          3  |   .2641197   .0271549     9.73   0.000     .2108971    .3173423
          4  |   .3906149   .0359741    10.86   0.000      .320107    .4611228
          5  |   .5337507   .0467579    11.42   0.000      .442107    .6253944
          6  |    .671537   .0526176    12.76   0.000     .5684084    .7746657
          7  |   .1048071   .0185681     5.64   0.000     .0684144    .1411998
          8  |   .1703658   .0223045     7.64   0.000     .1266498    .2140819
          9  |   .2648023   .0284413     9.31   0.000     .2090583    .3205463
         10  |   .3871579   .0400457     9.67   0.000     .3086698     .465646
         11  |   .5256291    .053672     9.79   0.000     .4204338    .6308243
         12  |   .6602676   .0613842    10.76   0.000     .5399568    .7805785
         13  |   .1018318   .0193886     5.25   0.000     .0638309    .1398326
         14  |   .1856074   .0252196     7.36   0.000     .1361778    .2350369
         15  |   .3141942   .0316995     9.91   0.000     .2520644    .3763241
         16  |   .4794224   .0405163    11.83   0.000     .4000118     .558833
         17  |   .6492785   .0466527    13.92   0.000     .5578408    .7407162
         18  |   .7881977   .0436921    18.04   0.000     .7025627    .8738327
         19  |   .1055132   .0195807     5.39   0.000     .0671357    .1438906
         20  |   .1888892   .0252425     7.48   0.000     .1394148    .2383636
         21  |   .3149509   .0320101     9.84   0.000     .2522123    .3776895
         22  |   .4757931   .0414663    11.47   0.000     .3945207    .5570656
         23  |   .6418188   .0482399    13.30   0.000     .5472703    .7363673
         24  |   .7796173   .0458424    17.01   0.000     .6897679    .8694667
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,13] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,14] \ a[1,8] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,15] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,16] \ a[1,10] \
> a[1,5] \ a[1,17] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,6] \ a[1,18] \ a[1,12];

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, positive event, and positive cue for
> Democrats who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of Bush,
> and so forth through Republicans who approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[18,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .38127433  .36410409  .15347403  .10114755
 r2  .37950589  .36444589  .15421646  .10183176
 r3  .37197258   .3658134  .15740692   .1048071
 r4  .25653062  .36455929  .21157067  .16733943
 r5  .23328179   .3577867  .22332415  .18560735
 r6  .25243931  .36356244  .21363242  .17036583
 r7   .1619193  .31665386  .25730714  .26411969
 r8  .13146144  .28681764  .26752667  .31419425
 r9  .16144365  .31625387  .25750015  .26480233
r10  .09762003  .24184109  .26992401  .39061487
r11  .07002375  .19343506  .25711877  .47942242
r12  .09890895  .24382146  .27011172  .38715787
r13  .05711434  .16634261  .24279236  .53375069
r14  .03610501  .11495718  .19965929  .64927852
r15  .05889561  .17026957  .24520577  .52562905
r16  .03280477  .10596209  .18969611  .67153704
r17  .01829296  .06302894  .13048042  .78819768
r18  .03445068  .11048185  .19479984  .66026763

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. /* Table A23 */
> 
> logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==0;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -126.81273  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -123.45664  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -123.34802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -123.34794  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -123.34794  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        300
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       6.93
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.1397
Log likelihood = -123.34794                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0273

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6130326     .38618     1.59   0.112    -.1438663    1.369932
   negevents |   -.412029    .446899    -0.92   0.357    -1.287935     .463877
     posbush |  -.0692931   .4019882    -0.17   0.863    -.8571755    .7185894
     negbush |   .0248883   .4107435     0.06   0.952    -.7801542    .8299309
       _cons |  -1.835228    .375263    -4.89   0.000     -2.57073   -1.099726
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -137.70836  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -132.93645  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -132.8478  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -132.84771  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -132.84771  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        242
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       9.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0454
Log likelihood = -132.84771                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0353

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   1.102417   .3802777     2.90   0.004     .3570861    1.847747
   negevents |   .8469175   .3863586     2.19   0.028     .0896685    1.604167
     posbush |  -.1541212   .3695456    -0.42   0.677    -.8784173    .5701749
     negbush |  -.2006502   .3601068    -0.56   0.577    -.9064465    .5051462
       _cons |  -1.615077   .3400921    -4.75   0.000    -2.281645   -.9485082
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==2;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -36.835168  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -36.607939  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -36.607876  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -36.607876  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =         54
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       0.45
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.9778
Log likelihood = -36.607876                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0062

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.0400348   .7040412    -0.06   0.955     -1.41993    1.339861
   negevents |  -.2633293   .7153004    -0.37   0.713    -1.665292    1.138634
     posbush |  -.0378312   .7185118    -0.05   0.958    -1.446088    1.370426
     negbush |   .3024491   .6892228     0.44   0.661    -1.048403    1.653301
       _cons |  -.2922281   .6417561    -0.46   0.649    -1.550047    .9655908
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==3;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -21.004968  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -18.603529  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -18.518412  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -18.518228  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -18.518228  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =         33
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.97
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.2900
Log likelihood = -18.518228                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1184

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   -.043647   1.115013    -0.04   0.969    -2.229033    2.141739
   negevents |  -.2724201    1.18205    -0.23   0.818    -2.589196    2.044356
     posbush |  -1.172571   1.297237    -0.90   0.366    -3.715109    1.369967
     negbush |  -2.247433    1.21483    -1.85   0.064    -4.628456    .1335906
       _cons |   2.221003   1.362197     1.63   0.103    -.4488547     4.89086
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==4;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -71.680227  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -69.479318  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -69.44646  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -69.446445  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -69.446445  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        131
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.47
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.3464
Log likelihood = -69.446445                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0312

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .9095414   .5069141     1.79   0.073    -.0839921    1.903075
   negevents |   .2183294   .5212055     0.42   0.675    -.8032145    1.239873
     posbush |  -.0302492   .5497509    -0.06   0.956    -1.107741    1.047243
     negbush |  -.4798848   .4883006    -0.98   0.326    -1.436936    .4771668
       _cons |   .9415363   .3950875     2.38   0.017     .1671791    1.715894
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==5;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -99.222996  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -94.481002  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -94.238473  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -94.237924  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -94.237924  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        237
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       9.97
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0409
Log likelihood = -94.237924                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0502

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .3719821   .5682242     0.65   0.513    -.7417168    1.485681
   negevents |  -.9636225   .4565794    -2.11   0.035    -1.858502   -.0687434
     posbush |   .3352404   .4907293     0.68   0.495    -.6265714    1.297052
     negbush |   .0109336   .4391293     0.02   0.980    -.8497439    .8716111
       _cons |   2.008085   .4367244     4.60   0.000      1.15212    2.864049
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* Table A24 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==0;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -297.30981  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -294.87032  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -294.86394  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -294.86394  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        299
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.89
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.2986
Log likelihood = -294.86394                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0082

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .0175833   .2833183     0.06   0.951    -.5377103     .572877
   negevents |   -.325059   .2719667    -1.20   0.232    -.8581038    .2079859
     posbush |   .3491897   .2759822     1.27   0.206    -.1917255    .8901049
     negbush |   .4387346    .282627     1.55   0.121    -.1152042    .9926733
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.8311921   .2537992                     -1.328629   -.3337548
       /cut2 |   1.855305   .2765507                      1.313275    2.397334
       /cut3 |    5.18489   .7463584                      3.722054    6.647726
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -275.07354  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -273.16472  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -273.16128  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -273.16128  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        241
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       3.82
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.4303
Log likelihood = -273.16128                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0070

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .4410407   .2974709     1.48   0.138    -.1419916    1.024073
   negevents |   .1432204   .2935241     0.49   0.626    -.4320762     .718517
     posbush |   .0659013   .3016145     0.22   0.827    -.5252524    .6570549
     negbush |  -.3167401   .2919223    -1.09   0.278    -.8888973    .2554171
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.8765676   .2589531                     -1.384106   -.3690288
       /cut2 |   1.369671   .2682661                      .8438789    1.895463
       /cut3 |    3.25568   .3906684                      2.489984    4.021376
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==2;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -71.118922  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -68.655945  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -68.638162  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -68.638146  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -68.638146  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =         54
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.96
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.2913
Log likelihood = -68.638146                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0349

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .4759859   .6320581     0.75   0.451    -.7628252    1.714797
   negevents |  -.7021675    .655473    -1.07   0.284    -1.986871    .5825361
     posbush |   .5424795   .6673528     0.81   0.416    -.7655081    1.850467
     negbush |   .9731993   .6423217     1.52   0.130    -.2857281    2.232127
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.3709052    .573244                     -1.494443    .7526323
       /cut2 |   .7180991   .5753342                     -.4095352    1.845733
       /cut3 |   2.702238   .7155684                       1.29975    4.104727
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==3;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -30.787382  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -26.317576  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -26.073522  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -26.072719  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -26.072719  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =         33
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       9.43
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0512
Log likelihood = -26.072719                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1531

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -1.425014   1.031258    -1.38   0.167    -3.446243    .5962144
   negevents |   -2.56028   1.138778    -2.25   0.025    -4.792243    -.328317
     posbush |  -1.202917    1.02602    -1.17   0.241    -3.213878    .8080448
     negbush |  -1.713959   .9745098    -1.76   0.079    -3.623963    .1960448
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -4.673735   1.377473                     -7.373532   -1.973939
       /cut2 |  -1.054923   1.036065                     -3.085573    .9757273
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==4;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -131.79074  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -129.56661  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -129.55894  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -129.55894  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        132
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.46
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.3469
Log likelihood = -129.55894                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0169

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .4024155    .398577     1.01   0.313    -.3787811    1.183612
   negevents |   .3338258    .455697     0.73   0.464    -.5593238    1.226975
     posbush |  -.2310308   .4293323    -0.54   0.590    -1.072507     .610445
     negbush |    -.75957   .4000339    -1.90   0.058    -1.543622     .024482
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -4.990368   1.049524                     -7.047397   -2.933338
       /cut2 |  -2.088134    .404902                     -2.881727    -1.29454
       /cut3 |   .4540321   .3461891                     -.2244861     1.13255
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush if bushfav==5;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -221.66317  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -221.19723  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -221.19713  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -221.19713  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        237
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       0.93
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.9199
Log likelihood = -221.19713                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0021

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .1578193   .3161322     0.50   0.618    -.4617885     .777427
   negevents |  -.0034534   .3115534    -0.01   0.991    -.6140868      .60718
     posbush |  -.0140171   .3232239    -0.04   0.965    -.6475242    .6194901
     negbush |  -.2056438   .3002159    -0.68   0.493    -.7940561    .3827685
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -4.803758   .7519806                     -6.277613   -3.329903
       /cut2 |  -2.534475   .3479661                     -3.216476   -1.852474
       /cut3 |   .0633874   .2780407                     -.4815623    .6083371
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* Table A25 */
> 
> ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==0;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -358.56108  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -357.46786  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -357.46726  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -357.46726  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        300
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       2.19
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.7013
Log likelihood = -357.46726                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0031

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.3039833   .2679641    -1.13   0.257    -.8291834    .2212167
   negevents |  -.3094736   .2595129    -1.19   0.233    -.8181096    .1991624
     posbush |  -.1216683   .2594662    -0.47   0.639    -.6302127    .3868761
     negbush |   .0660169    .269291     0.25   0.806    -.4617838    .5938176
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.8963883   .2496382                      -1.38567   -.4071063
       /cut2 |   .9680286   .2515766                      .4749475     1.46111
       /cut3 |   2.657017   .3318365                      2.006629    3.307404
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.   ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -328.90922  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -326.74718  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -326.74503  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -326.74503  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        242
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       4.33
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.3634
Log likelihood = -326.74503                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0066

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5389444   .2821945     1.91   0.056    -.0141467    1.092036
   negevents |   .1054713   .2800739     0.38   0.706    -.4434634     .654406
     posbush |   .1762765   .2880186     0.61   0.541    -.3882296    .7407826
     negbush |  -.0054428   .2764705    -0.02   0.984    -.5473151    .5364295
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.6083814   .2474575                     -1.093389   -.1233736
       /cut2 |    .718624   .2476871                      .2331663    1.204082
       /cut3 |   1.714484   .2707632                      1.183798     2.24517
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==2;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -71.059506  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -69.40979  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -69.404144  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -69.404143  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =         53
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       3.31
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.5072
Log likelihood = -69.404143                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0233

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .4730293   .6321513     0.75   0.454    -.7659644    1.712023
   negevents |  -.6000178   .6375966    -0.94   0.347    -1.849684    .6496485
     posbush |   .5866763   .6548199     0.90   0.370    -.6967472      1.8701
     negbush |   .7638045   .6616096     1.15   0.248    -.5329264    2.060535
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -1.210352   .6338382                     -2.452652    .0319475
       /cut2 |   .2348551   .5897544                     -.9210423    1.390753
       /cut3 |   1.045421   .6058517                     -.1420268    2.232868
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==3;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -42.780576  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -41.314081  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -41.308416  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -41.308414  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =         32
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       2.94
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.5672
Log likelihood = -41.308414                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0344

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.5915946   .9154081    -0.65   0.518    -2.385762    1.202572
   negevents |  -.2912143   .9496684    -0.31   0.759     -2.15253    1.570102
     posbush |   -.044531   .9497483    -0.05   0.963    -1.906003    1.816941
     negbush |  -.9324209   .8237242    -1.13   0.258    -2.546891    .6820489
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -2.539764    1.08907                     -4.674302    -.405225
       /cut2 |  -1.187257   1.017173                      -3.18088    .8063655
       /cut3 |  -.2273428   .9943676                     -2.176267    1.721582
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==4;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -147.50712  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -145.64255  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -145.63897  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -145.63897  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        131
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       3.74
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.4429
Log likelihood = -145.63897                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0127

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5091559    .401194     1.27   0.204    -.2771699    1.295482
   negevents |   .5100136   .4571091     1.12   0.265    -.3859038    1.405931
     posbush |   .0594053   .4371425     0.14   0.892    -.7973783    .9161889
     negbush |  -.4789917   .4031458    -1.19   0.235    -1.269143    .3111597
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -2.571831   .4599727                     -3.473361   -1.670301
       /cut2 |  -1.035363   .3510271                     -1.723364   -.3473626
       /cut3 |  -.0271397   .3365851                     -.6868342    .6325549
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush if
> bushfav==5;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -223.13226  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -219.33155  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -219.30378  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -219.30378  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        236
                                                  LR chi2(4)      =       7.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.1050
Log likelihood = -219.30378                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0172

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5732682   .3484551     1.65   0.100    -.1096914    1.256228
   negevents |   .0290862   .3279583     0.09   0.929    -.6137002    .6718727
     posbush |  -.2221294   .3702045    -0.60   0.548     -.947717    .5034581
     negbush |  -.6510301   .3327949    -1.96   0.050    -1.303296     .001236
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -3.291104   .4261771                     -4.126396   -2.455813
       /cut2 |  -1.981361   .3336959                     -2.635393   -1.327329
       /cut3 |   -.845663   .3066493                     -1.446685   -.2446413
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* Table A26 */
> 
> /* create the interactions between treatments and approval */
> 
> gen bushapp4=4-bushapprove;
(1 missing value generated)

. label variable bushapp4 "Bush Approval";

. label define bushapp4v 0 "Str Dispp" 1 "Some Disapp" 2 "Some Appr" 3
> "Str Appr";

.  label values bushapp4 bushapp4v;

. gen peba4=posevents*bushapp4;
(1 missing value generated)

.  gen neba4=negevents*bushapp4;
(1 missing value generated)

. gen pbba4=posbush*bushapp4;
(1 missing value generated)

.  gen nbba4=negbush*bushapp4;
(1 missing value generated)

. logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -687.09003  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -467.15527  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -466.21853  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -466.21567  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -466.21567  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        997
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     441.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -466.21567                       Pseudo R2       =     0.3215

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .9946139   .3060605     3.25   0.001     .3947464    1.594481
   negevents |   .3846603   .3228998     1.19   0.234    -.2482117    1.017532
     posbush |  -.0985112   .2975906    -0.33   0.741     -.681778    .4847555
     negbush |  -.0680917   .2939555    -0.23   0.817    -.6442339    .5080505
       peba4 |  -.2313718   .2169476    -1.07   0.286    -.6565813    .1938378
       neba4 |  -.3458384   .2127152    -1.63   0.104    -.7627526    .0710757
       pbba4 |   .0832819    .212784     0.39   0.696    -.3337672    .5003309
       nbba4 |  -.1033973   .1983195    -0.52   0.602    -.4920965    .2853019
    bushapp4 |   1.413431   .1948945     7.25   0.000     1.031445    1.795418
    democrat |  -.4902361   .2020719    -2.43   0.015    -.8862897   -.0941825
  republican |   .5664589   .2126963     2.66   0.008     .1495818     .983336
       _cons |  -1.918251   .2979544    -6.44   0.000    -2.502231   -1.334271
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1001.4809  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -975.20937  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -975.03773  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -975.03769  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     727.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -975.03769                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2718

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .2446314   .2116946     1.16   0.248    -.1702823    .6595451
   negevents |  -.1416057   .2083846    -0.68   0.497    -.5500321    .2668207
     posbush |   .0980363   .2102779     0.47   0.641    -.3141008    .5101733
     negbush |   .2466065    .210932     1.17   0.242    -.1668126    .6600256
       peba4 |   .0776135    .145725     0.53   0.594    -.2080023    .3632293
       neba4 |   .0476863   .1445021     0.33   0.741    -.2355326    .3309053
       pbba4 |   .0587968    .150337     0.39   0.696    -.2358584     .353452
       nbba4 |  -.3148595   .1398377    -2.25   0.024    -.5889363   -.0407826
    bushapp4 |    1.80341   .1431816    12.60   0.000     1.522779     2.08404
    democrat |   .0081141   .1521362     0.05   0.957    -.2900673    .3062956
  republican |   .3974582   .1743508     2.28   0.023      .055737    .7391795
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4932602   .2049421                     -.8949394   -.0915811
       /cut2 |   2.074942    .219213                      1.645292    2.504591
       /cut3 |   4.694615     .26625                      4.172775    5.216456
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> pbba4 nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1168.2925  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1164.7168  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     381.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1164.7016                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1408

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .0964598   .1994595     0.48   0.629    -.2944736    .4873933
   negevents |  -.1430667   .1960725    -0.73   0.466    -.5273616    .2412283
     posbush |   .0264404    .197841     0.13   0.894    -.3613207    .4142016
     negbush |   .1290237    .198087     0.65   0.515    -.2592195     .517267
       peba4 |   .1880272   .1444494     1.30   0.193    -.0950885    .4711429
       neba4 |   .1288537   .1423427     0.91   0.365    -.1501329    .4078403
       pbba4 |  -.0255175   .1512831    -0.17   0.866     -.322027     .270992
       nbba4 |  -.3442054   .1395802    -2.47   0.014    -.6177776   -.0706332
    bushapp4 |   .8834924   .1315327     6.72   0.000      .625693    1.141292
    democrat |  -.4412246   .1467278    -3.01   0.003    -.7288058   -.1536433
  republican |   .6437875   .1718278     3.75   0.000     .3070112    .9805638
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.7954572   .1967776                     -1.181134   -.4097802
       /cut2 |   .7864205   .1953066                      .4036266    1.169215
       /cut3 |   1.918906     .20513                      1.516858    2.320953
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* Table A27 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 i.dem i.rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1001.4809  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -975.20937  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -975.03773  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -975.03769  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     727.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -975.03769                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2718

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .2446314   .2116946     1.16   0.248    -.1702823    .6595451
 1.negevents |  -.1416057   .2083846    -0.68   0.497    -.5500321    .2668207
   1.posbush |   .0980363   .2102779     0.47   0.641    -.3141008    .5101733
   1.negbush |   .2466065    .210932     1.17   0.242    -.1668126    .6600256
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0776135    .145725     0.53   0.594    -.2080023    .3632293
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0476863   .1445021     0.33   0.741    -.2355326    .3309053
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0587968    .150337     0.39   0.696    -.2358584     .353452
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.3148595   .1398377    -2.25   0.024    -.5889363   -.0407826
             |
    bushapp4 |    1.80341   .1431816    12.60   0.000     1.522779     2.08404
  1.democrat |   .0081141   .1521362     0.05   0.957    -.2900673    .3062956
1.republican |   .3974582   .1743508     2.28   0.023      .055737    .7391795
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4932602   .2049421                     -.8949394   -.0915811
       /cut2 |   2.074942    .219213                      1.645292    2.504591
       /cut3 |   4.694615     .26625                      4.172775    5.216456
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3772177   .0478291     7.89   0.000     .2834744     .470961
          2  |   .0907275   .0154726     5.86   0.000     .0604018    .1210533
          3  |   .0161716   .0042066     3.84   0.000     .0079269    .0244164
          4  |   .0027005   .0010278     2.63   0.009     .0006861     .004715
          5  |   .3212614   .0468356     6.86   0.000     .2294653    .4130575
          6  |   .0965176   .0168792     5.72   0.000      .063435    .1296003
          7  |   .0235435   .0062051     3.79   0.000     .0113817    .0357052
          8  |   .0054124   .0021007     2.58   0.010      .001295    .0095298
          9  |   .4110156   .0491819     8.36   0.000     .3146208    .5074103
         10  |   .0987791   .0166799     5.92   0.000     .0660871    .1314711
         11  |   .0169239   .0045257     3.74   0.000     .0080537     .025794
         12  |   .0026966   .0010688     2.52   0.012     .0006019    .0047914
         13  |   .3528865   .0472181     7.47   0.000     .2603407    .4454323
         14  |   .1050237   .0174335     6.02   0.000     .0708547    .1391926
         15  |   .0246301   .0062673     3.93   0.000     .0123465    .0369137
         16  |   .0054046   .0020379     2.65   0.008     .0014104    .0093988
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .5104192   .0321958    15.85   0.000     .4473166    .5735218
          2  |   .4747488   .0335893    14.13   0.000     .4089149    .5405827
          3  |   .1603649   .0310585     5.16   0.000     .0994914    .2212384
          4  |   .0314114   .0105872     2.97   0.003     .0106609    .0521618
          5  |   .5393312   .0283162    19.05   0.000     .4838325    .5948299
          6  |   .4856483   .0329942    14.72   0.000     .4209809    .5503156
          7  |   .2156913   .0392301     5.50   0.000     .1388017    .2925809
          8  |   .0608589   .0204124     2.98   0.003     .0208513    .1008664
          9  |   .4899887   .0346314    14.15   0.000     .4221124     .557865
         10  |   .4896167   .0328762    14.89   0.000     .4251805    .5540528
         11  |   .1664344   .0333163     5.00   0.000     .1011356    .2317331
         12  |   .0313674   .0111267     2.82   0.005     .0095595    .0531754
         13  |    .523844   .0305596    17.14   0.000     .4639482    .5837398
         14  |   .4997965   .0310965    16.07   0.000     .4388486    .5607445
         15  |   .2231204   .0387996     5.75   0.000     .1470745    .2991662
         16  |   .0607768   .0197773     3.07   0.002     .0220139    .0995397
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1032284   .0198767     5.19   0.000     .0642708     .142186
          2  |   .3815279   .0371605    10.27   0.000     .3086946    .4543612
          3  |   .5698973   .0256282    22.24   0.000     .5196669    .6201277
          4  |   .2924607   .0617224     4.74   0.000     .1714871    .4134344
          5  |   .1277477   .0244013     5.24   0.000     .0799221    .1755733
          6  |   .3681611   .0375406     9.81   0.000     .2945829    .4417393
          7  |   .5727249   .0249657    22.94   0.000      .523793    .6216568
          8  |   .4272901   .0669239     6.38   0.000     .2961218    .5584585
          9  |   .0910576   .0179917     5.06   0.000     .0557946    .1263206
         10  |   .3631289   .0374821     9.69   0.000     .2896654    .4365925
         11  |    .571726   .0252103    22.68   0.000     .5223147    .6211372
         12  |   .2921891   .0655626     4.46   0.000     .1636888    .4206894
         13  |   .1131337   .0215531     5.25   0.000     .0708904    .1553771
         14  |   .3497574   .0361808     9.67   0.000     .2788443    .4206706
         15  |   .5711666   .0254198    22.47   0.000     .5213447    .6209884
         16  |   .4270168   .0651614     6.55   0.000     .2993027    .5547308
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0091347   .0024086     3.79   0.000     .0044139    .0138555
          2  |   .0529958   .0102869     5.15   0.000     .0328337    .0731578
          3  |   .2535662   .0440695     5.75   0.000     .1671915    .3399409
          4  |   .6734273   .0720786     9.34   0.000     .5321559    .8146988
          5  |   .0116596   .0031231     3.73   0.000     .0055385    .0177807
          6  |    .049673   .0100362     4.95   0.000     .0300024    .0693436
          7  |   .1880403   .0377121     4.99   0.000      .114126    .2619546
          8  |   .5064386    .086901     5.83   0.000     .3361156    .6767615
          9  |   .0079381   .0021059     3.77   0.000     .0038106    .0120657
         10  |   .0484753   .0095723     5.06   0.000     .0297139    .0672368
         11  |   .2449158   .0451771     5.42   0.000     .1563702    .3334613
         12  |   .6737469   .0765695     8.80   0.000     .5236733    .8238204
         13  |   .0101357   .0026723     3.79   0.000     .0048982    .0153733
         14  |   .0454224   .0090183     5.04   0.000     .0277468     .063098
         15  |    .181083   .0355873     5.09   0.000     .1113331    .2508329
         16  |   .5068018   .0843698     6.01   0.000     .3414401    .6721635
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices (columns) for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue
> for Democrats who strongly disapprove of Bush, somewhat disapprove of
> Bush, somewhat approve of Bush, and strongly approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .37721774   .5104192  .10322839  .00913467
 r2  .41101557   .4899887  .09105759  .00793814
 r3  .32126142  .53933123  .12774772  .01165963
 r4  .09072753  .47474879  .38152791  .05299577
 r5  .09877908  .48961665  .36312895  .04847532
 r6  .09651763  .48564827   .3681611  .04967301
 r7  .01617162  .16036488  .56989729  .25356621
 r8  .01692389  .16643438  .57172598  .24491576
 r9  .02354349  .21569134  .57272487   .1880403
r10  .00270053  .03141139  .29246075  .67342733
r11  .00269662  .03136745  .29218908  .67374686
r12  .00541242  .06085886  .42729014  .50643857

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. ologit disapptimetable4 i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 i.dem i.rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1168.2925  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1164.7168  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     381.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1164.7016                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1408

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .0964598   .1994595     0.48   0.629    -.2944736    .4873933
 1.negevents |  -.1430667   .1960725    -0.73   0.466    -.5273616    .2412283
   1.posbush |   .0264404    .197841     0.13   0.894    -.3613207    .4142016
   1.negbush |   .1290237    .198087     0.65   0.515    -.2592195     .517267
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .1880272   .1444494     1.30   0.193    -.0950885    .4711429
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .1288537   .1423427     0.91   0.365    -.1501329    .4078403
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.0255175   .1512831    -0.17   0.866     -.322027     .270992
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.3442054   .1395802    -2.47   0.014    -.6177776   -.0706332
             |
    bushapp4 |   .8834924   .1315327     6.72   0.000      .625693    1.141292
  1.democrat |  -.4412246   .1467278    -3.01   0.003    -.7288058   -.1536433
1.republican |   .6437875   .1718278     3.75   0.000     .3070112    .9805638
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.7954572   .1967776                     -1.181134   -.4097802
       /cut2 |   .7864205   .1953066                      .4036266    1.169215
       /cut3 |   1.918906     .20513                      1.516858    2.320953
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .4123564   .0468014     8.81   0.000     .3206273    .5040855
          2  |   .2248322   .0299238     7.51   0.000     .1661827    .2834818
          3  |   .1070516   .0226732     4.72   0.000      .062613    .1514903
          4  |   .0472135    .015429     3.06   0.002     .0169733    .0774538
          5  |   .3814835    .047714     8.00   0.000     .2879657    .4750012
          6  |   .2645323   .0340214     7.78   0.000     .1978515    .3312131
          7  |   .1733841   .0343755     5.04   0.000     .1060095    .2407588
          8  |   .1089883   .0338823     3.22   0.001     .0425802    .1753963
          9  |   .4474038   .0472847     9.46   0.000     .3547274    .5400802
         10  |    .227319   .0305482     7.44   0.000     .1674455    .2871924
         11  |   .0965763   .0220886     4.37   0.000     .0532835    .1398691
         12  |   .0373915   .0133764     2.80   0.005     .0111742    .0636087
         13  |   .4157634   .0473896     8.77   0.000     .3228815    .5086453
         14  |   .2673067    .032971     8.11   0.000     .2026847    .3319287
         15  |   .1575633   .0309311     5.09   0.000     .0969394    .2181872
         16  |    .087495   .0271859     3.22   0.001     .0342115    .1407785
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3610497   .0217343    16.61   0.000     .3184513    .4036482
          2  |   .3603667   .0209531    17.20   0.000     .3192994    .4014339
          3  |   .2612896   .0334217     7.82   0.000     .1957842    .3267949
          4  |   .1470044   .0376377     3.91   0.000     .0732359     .220773
          5  |   .3685182   .0206132    17.88   0.000      .328117    .4089194
          6  |   .3717662   .0192142    19.35   0.000      .334107    .4094254
          7  |   .3316275   .0290298    11.42   0.000     .2747302    .3885249
          8  |   .2640418   .0479057     5.51   0.000     .1701482    .3579353
          9  |   .3500913   .0231794    15.10   0.000     .3046606    .3955221
         10  |   .3613258   .0211558    17.08   0.000     .3198611    .4027904
         11  |   .2455168   .0356312     6.89   0.000     .1756809    .3153527
         12  |   .1215231   .0357529     3.40   0.001     .0514487    .1915975
         13  |   .3600943   .0219387    16.41   0.000     .3170951    .4030935
         14  |   .3722746   .0191995    19.39   0.000     .3346442    .4099049
         15  |   .3188059   .0301403    10.58   0.000     .2597321    .3778798
         16  |   .2305579   .0465118     4.96   0.000     .1393966    .3217193
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1403299    .020025     7.01   0.000     .1010817    .1795782
          2  |   .2288653   .0204713    11.18   0.000     .1887424    .2689883
          3  |   .2757454   .0177295    15.55   0.000     .2409961    .3104947
          4  |    .233701   .0322217     7.25   0.000     .1705476    .2968544
          5  |   .1530066   .0215693     7.09   0.000     .1107317    .1952816
          6  |   .2081648   .0207404    10.04   0.000     .1675143    .2488153
          7  |   .2549616   .0223678    11.40   0.000     .2111214    .2988017
          8  |   .2756508   .0178399    15.45   0.000     .2406853    .3106163
          9  |   .1268705   .0189659     6.69   0.000     .0896981    .1640429
         10  |   .2275612   .0208613    10.91   0.000     .1866739    .2684485
         11  |   .2753017   .0178551    15.42   0.000     .2403063    .3102971
         12  |   .2107069   .0375708     5.61   0.000     .1370694    .2843444
         13  |   .1389789   .0201579     6.89   0.000     .0994701    .1784877
         14  |   .2067397   .0204118    10.13   0.000     .1667333    .2467461
         15  |   .2620738   .0208851    12.55   0.000     .2211398    .3030078
         16  |   .2733459   .0192294    14.21   0.000     .2356569    .3110349
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Dems */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=1 rep=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           1
               republican      =           0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0862639   .0164751     5.24   0.000     .0539732    .1185546
          2  |   .1859357   .0266139     6.99   0.000     .1337735     .238098
          3  |   .3559134   .0526475     6.76   0.000     .2527263    .4591005
          4  |    .572081   .0808876     7.07   0.000     .4135443    .7306178
          5  |   .0969917    .018855     5.14   0.000     .0600365    .1339468
          6  |   .1555367   .0236607     6.57   0.000     .1091626    .2019108
          7  |   .2400268   .0430969     5.57   0.000     .1555584    .3244951
          8  |   .3513192   .0777672     4.52   0.000     .1988983      .50374
          9  |   .0756343   .0146691     5.16   0.000     .0468834    .1043853
         10  |    .183794   .0269065     6.83   0.000     .1310582    .2365299
         11  |   .3826052   .0580982     6.59   0.000     .2687347    .4964757
         12  |   .6303786   .0836826     7.53   0.000     .4663638    .7943933
         13  |   .0851634   .0164492     5.18   0.000     .0529236    .1174033
         14  |    .153679   .0227882     6.74   0.000      .109015     .198343
         15  |   .2615569   .0442572     5.91   0.000     .1748145    .3482994
         16  |   .4086011    .080143     5.10   0.000     .2515237    .5656786
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices (columns) for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue
> for Democrats who strongly disapprove of Bush, somewhat disapprove of
> Bush, somewhat approve of Bush, and strongly approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .41235641  .36104974  .14032995   .0862639
 r2  .44740381  .35009131  .12687052  .07563435
 r3  .38148348  .36851822  .15300664  .09699166
 r4  .22483223  .36036668  .22886534  .18593575
 r5  .22731898  .36132576  .22756123  .18379402
 r6  .26453228  .37176623  .20816482  .15553667
 r7  .10705164  .26128955   .2757454  .35591341
 r8  .09657631   .2455168  .27530167  .38260522
 r9  .17338415   .3316275  .25496157  .24002678
r10  .04721355  .14700442  .23370101  .57208102
r11  .03739147  .12152309  .21070689  .63037855
r12  .10898825  .26404176  .27565081  .35131918

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. /* Table A28 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 i.dem i.rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1001.4809  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -975.20937  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -975.03773  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -975.03769  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     727.75
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -975.03769                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2718

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .2446314   .2116946     1.16   0.248    -.1702823    .6595451
 1.negevents |  -.1416057   .2083846    -0.68   0.497    -.5500321    .2668207
   1.posbush |   .0980363   .2102779     0.47   0.641    -.3141008    .5101733
   1.negbush |   .2466065    .210932     1.17   0.242    -.1668126    .6600256
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0776135    .145725     0.53   0.594    -.2080023    .3632293
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0476863   .1445021     0.33   0.741    -.2355326    .3309053
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .0587968    .150337     0.39   0.696    -.2358584     .353452
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.3148595   .1398377    -2.25   0.024    -.5889363   -.0407826
             |
    bushapp4 |    1.80341   .1431816    12.60   0.000     1.522779     2.08404
  1.democrat |   .0081141   .1521362     0.05   0.957    -.2900673    .3062956
1.republican |   .3974582   .1743508     2.28   0.023      .055737    .7391795
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4932602   .2049421                     -.8949394   -.0915811
       /cut2 |   2.074942    .219213                      1.645292    2.504591
       /cut3 |   4.694615     .26625                      4.172775    5.216456
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2909616   .0518647     5.61   0.000     .1893086    .3926146
          2  |   .0633207   .0123293     5.14   0.000     .0391557    .0874857
          3  |   .0110137   .0027604     3.99   0.000     .0056035     .016424
          4  |   .0018312   .0006494     2.82   0.005     .0005583    .0031041
          5  |   .2428118   .0480538     5.05   0.000     .1486281    .3369955
          6  |   .0674916   .0132765     5.08   0.000     .0414701    .0935131
          7  |   .0160728   .0040238     3.99   0.000     .0081862    .0239594
          8  |   .0036733   .0013147     2.79   0.005     .0010966      .00625
          9  |   .3210147   .0556514     5.77   0.000     .2119398    .4300895
         10  |    .069125   .0134393     5.14   0.000     .0427845    .0954655
         11  |   .0115289   .0029521     3.91   0.000     .0057429    .0173149
         12  |   .0018286   .0006722     2.72   0.007      .000511    .0031461
         13  |   .2697839   .0510292     5.29   0.000     .1697685    .3697993
         14  |   .0736481   .0139673     5.27   0.000     .0462726    .1010236
         15  |   .0168205   .0040082     4.20   0.000     .0089647    .0246764
         16  |    .003668   .0012532     2.93   0.003     .0012119    .0061242
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .5516094   .0268157    20.57   0.000     .4990516    .6041673
          2  |   .4052393   .0398057    10.18   0.000     .3272216     .483257
          3  |   .1158104   .0224482     5.16   0.000     .0718127    .1598081
          4  |   .0215367   .0066999     3.21   0.001     .0084051    .0346683
          5  |   .5642261   .0221097    25.52   0.000      .520892    .6075602
          6  |   .4180941   .0394426    10.60   0.000      .340788    .4954002
          7  |   .1595596    .029224     5.46   0.000     .1022817    .2168376
          8  |   .0422061   .0130651     3.23   0.001     .0165989    .0678133
          9  |   .5394421   .0309631    17.42   0.000     .4787556    .6001286
         10  |    .422874   .0400203    10.57   0.000     .3444356    .5013124
         11  |    .120504    .024076     5.01   0.000     .0733159    .1676921
         12  |   .0215062     .00702     3.06   0.002     .0077472    .0352652
         13  |   .5583533   .0246226    22.68   0.000     .5100939    .6066128
         14  |   .4354125   .0381792    11.40   0.000     .3605825    .5102424
         15  |   .1656065   .0285516     5.80   0.000     .1096463    .2215667
         16  |   .0421478   .0123801     3.40   0.001     .0178833    .0664123
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1440045   .0314247     4.58   0.000     .0824131    .2055958
          2  |   .4551423   .0392748    11.59   0.000     .3781651    .5321195
          3  |    .539218   .0306759    17.58   0.000     .4790943    .5993416
          4  |   .2239307   .0468315     4.78   0.000     .1321426    .3157189
          5  |   .1758473   .0373614     4.71   0.000     .1026202    .2490744
          6  |   .4427899   .0397546    11.14   0.000     .3648723    .5207075
          7  |   .5696201   .0252357    22.57   0.000     .5201591    .6190811
          8  |   .3518105   .0599153     5.87   0.000     .2343786    .4692424
          9  |   .1278705    .029186     4.38   0.000      .070667     .185074
         10  |   .4380646   .0406708    10.77   0.000     .3583514    .5177778
         11  |   .5442126   .0306387    17.76   0.000     .4841619    .6042634
         12  |   .2236935   .0498744     4.49   0.000     .1259415    .3214455
         13  |   .1569741   .0342956     4.58   0.000      .089756    .2241922
         14  |   .4253143    .039706    10.71   0.000      .347492    .5031367
         15  |    .571503   .0246721    23.16   0.000     .5231466    .6198594
         16  |    .351526   .0567445     6.19   0.000     .2403087    .4627433
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        996
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0134245    .003892     3.45   0.001     .0057963    .0210528
          2  |   .0762977    .014756     5.17   0.000     .0473764     .105219
          3  |   .3339579   .0457588     7.30   0.000     .2442724    .4236435
          4  |   .7527013   .0532402    14.14   0.000     .6483525    .8570501
          5  |   .0171148   .0050302     3.40   0.001     .0072558    .0269738
          6  |   .0716244   .0142653     5.02   0.000      .043665    .0995839
          7  |   .2547475    .041021     6.21   0.000     .1743479    .3351471
          8  |   .6023101   .0724167     8.32   0.000     .4603759    .7442442
          9  |   .0116727   .0034458     3.39   0.001     .0049189    .0184264
         10  |   .0699364   .0138552     5.05   0.000     .0427808     .097092
         11  |   .3237544   .0472525     6.85   0.000     .2311413    .4163676
         12  |   .7529717   .0566762    13.29   0.000     .6418884    .8640551
         13  |   .0148886   .0043774     3.40   0.001     .0063091    .0234681
         14  |   .0656251   .0129442     5.07   0.000     .0402548    .0909953
         15  |     .24607   .0380492     6.47   0.000     .1714949    .3206451
         16  |   .6026581   .0683945     8.81   0.000     .4686074    .7367088
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices (columns) for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue for
> Republicans who strongly disapprove of Bush, etc. */ 
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .29096158  .55160943  .14400447  .01342452
 r2  .32101466  .53944214  .12787052  .01167268
 r3  .24281184  .56422608  .17584731  .01711477
 r4  .06332074  .40523927  .45514232  .07629767
 r5  .06912499  .42287401   .4380646  .06993639
 r6   .0674916  .41809411  .44278988  .07162441
 r7  .01101373   .1158104  .53921795  .33395792
 r8  .01152888  .12050403  .54421265  .32375444
 r9  .01607277  .15955965  .56962009  .25474749
r10  .00183121  .02153673  .22393074  .75270133
r11  .00182855  .02150624  .22369347  .75297174
r12  .00367333  .04220609  .35181049  .60231009

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. ologit disapptimetable4 i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 i.dem i.rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1168.2925  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1164.7168  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1164.7016  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     381.66
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1164.7016                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1408

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .0964598   .1994595     0.48   0.629    -.2944736    .4873933
 1.negevents |  -.1430667   .1960725    -0.73   0.466    -.5273616    .2412283
   1.posbush |   .0264404    .197841     0.13   0.894    -.3613207    .4142016
   1.negbush |   .1290237    .198087     0.65   0.515    -.2592195     .517267
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .1880272   .1444494     1.30   0.193    -.0950885    .4711429
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .1288537   .1423427     0.91   0.365    -.1501329    .4078403
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.0255175   .1512831    -0.17   0.866     -.322027     .270992
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.3442054   .1395802    -2.47   0.014    -.6177776   -.0706332
             |
    bushapp4 |   .8834924   .1315327     6.72   0.000      .625693    1.141292
  1.democrat |  -.4412246   .1467278    -3.01   0.003    -.7288058   -.1536433
1.republican |   .6437875   .1718278     3.75   0.000     .3070112    .9805638
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.7954572   .1967776                     -1.181134   -.4097802
       /cut2 |   .7864205   .1953066                      .4036266    1.169215
       /cut3 |   1.918906     .20513                      1.516858    2.320953
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1916623   .0378905     5.06   0.000     .1173984    .2659263
          2  |   .0892573   .0159534     5.59   0.000     .0579893    .1205254
          3  |    .038932   .0085172     4.57   0.000     .0222385    .0556254
          4  |   .0164681   .0051148     3.22   0.001     .0064433     .026493
          5  |   .1724634   .0361886     4.77   0.000      .101535    .2433917
          6  |   .1083646   .0188963     5.73   0.000     .0713286    .1454006
          7  |   .0661839   .0137451     4.82   0.000     .0392441    .0931237
          8  |    .039691   .0119282     3.33   0.001     .0163122    .0630699
          9  |   .2148089   .0415169     5.17   0.000     .1334373    .2961806
         10  |   .0904195   .0165271     5.47   0.000     .0580269     .122812
         11  |   .0348621   .0082658     4.22   0.000     .0186615    .0510627
         12  |   .0129552   .0044388     2.92   0.004     .0042554    .0216551
         13  |   .1938474   .0392127     4.94   0.000     .1169919    .2707029
         14  |   .1097456   .0188206     5.83   0.000     .0728579    .1466332
         15  |   .0594414    .012112     4.91   0.000     .0357023    .0831805
         16  |   .0313824   .0092422     3.40   0.001      .013268    .0494967
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3439356   .0279211    12.32   0.000     .2892113    .3986598
          2  |   .2335589   .0272607     8.57   0.000      .180129    .2869889
          3  |   .1256736   .0217349     5.78   0.000     .0830739    .1682733
          4  |   .0588419   .0161727     3.64   0.000      .027144    .0905399
          5  |   .3309389   .0307204    10.77   0.000      .270728    .3911498
          6  |   .2631609   .0274549     9.59   0.000     .2093503    .3169715
          7  |   .1901779   .0276599     6.88   0.000     .1359655    .2443903
          8  |   .1276972   .0306008     4.17   0.000     .0677206    .1876737
          9  |   .3561341   .0255674    13.93   0.000     .3060228    .4062453
         10  |   .2355116   .0283114     8.32   0.000     .1800223     .291001
         11  |   .1145788   .0221136     5.18   0.000      .071237    .1579206
         12  |   .0470559   .0146122     3.22   0.001     .0184165    .0756952
         13  |   .3452417   .0282164    12.24   0.000     .2899386    .4005447
         14  |   .2651046   .0274513     9.66   0.000     .2113011    .3189082
         15  |   .1756817   .0259178     6.78   0.000     .1248837    .2264798
         16  |   .1047554   .0255107     4.11   0.000     .0547553    .1547554
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2460198   .0240001    10.25   0.000     .1989804    .2930591
          2  |   .2738578   .0179857    15.23   0.000     .2386065    .3091092
          3  |   .2148484   .0235745     9.11   0.000     .1686432    .2610536
          4  |   .1264453   .0272602     4.64   0.000     .0730164    .1798743
          5  |   .2553946     .02284    11.18   0.000     .2106291    .3001601
          6  |   .2756867   .0177244    15.55   0.000     .2409476    .3104258
          7  |   .2605119   .0201899    12.90   0.000     .2209405    .3000833
          8  |     .21681   .0310994     6.97   0.000     .1558563    .2777638
          9  |   .2341107   .0257245     9.10   0.000     .1836916    .2845299
         10  |   .2741587   .0179436    15.28   0.000     .2389899    .3093274
         11  |   .2034154   .0254445     7.99   0.000      .153545    .2532858
         12  |    .105352   .0268236     3.93   0.000     .0527788    .1579252
         13  |   .2449162   .0246104     9.95   0.000     .1966807    .2931516
         14  |   .2756004   .0177451    15.53   0.000     .2408208    .3103801
         15  |    .253099   .0207708    12.19   0.000     .2123891     .293809
         16  |   .1922997   .0309588     6.21   0.000     .1316215    .2529779
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0 dem=0 rep=1) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        994
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3
               democrat        =           0
               republican      =           1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2183823   .0419394     5.21   0.000     .1361825    .3005821
          2  |   .4033259   .0444539     9.07   0.000     .3161979    .4904539
          3  |    .620546   .0485291    12.79   0.000     .5254308    .7156612
          4  |   .7982446   .0470726    16.96   0.000      .705984    .8905052
          5  |   .2412031   .0462727     5.21   0.000     .1505103    .3318959
          6  |   .3527878   .0422817     8.34   0.000     .2699172    .4356583
          7  |   .4831263   .0511303     9.45   0.000     .3829127    .5833398
          8  |   .6158018   .0697112     8.83   0.000     .4791703    .7524333
          9  |   .1949463    .039143     4.98   0.000     .1182273    .2716652
         10  |   .3999103   .0458333     8.73   0.000     .3100787    .4897419
         11  |   .6471436   .0515285    12.56   0.000     .5461497    .7481376
         12  |   .8346369   .0448381    18.61   0.000     .7467558     .922518
         13  |   .2159948   .0427229     5.06   0.000     .1322594    .2997302
         14  |   .3495494   .0417002     8.38   0.000     .2678185    .4312802
         15  |   .5117779    .049539    10.33   0.000     .4146833    .6088724
         16  |   .6715626   .0626439    10.72   0.000     .5487828    .7943424
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices (columns) for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue
> for Republicans who strongly disapprove of Bush, somewhat disapprove of
> Bush, somewhat approve of Bush, and strongly approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .19166234  .34393559  .24601976  .21838231
 r2  .21480895  .35613407  .23411072  .19494626
 r3  .17246338  .33093889  .25539461  .24120312
 r4  .08925731  .23355894  .27385783  .40332593
 r5  .09041945  .23551162  .27415866  .39991027
 r6  .10836463  .26316091   .2756867  .35278776
 r7  .03893197  .12567361  .21484842  .62054601
 r8  .03486211  .11457883  .20341544  .64714362
 r9  .06618388  .19017793  .26051193  .48312626
r10  .01646815  .05884195  .12644533  .79824457
r11  .01295522  .04705587  .10535199  .83463692
r12  .03969104  .12769715  .21681004  .61580176

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. /* Table A29 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> posbushxrep nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1000.6212  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -974.17012  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -974.00163  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -974.0016  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     729.82
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -974.0016                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2725

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .2280732   .2120991     1.08   0.282    -.1876334    .6437798
   negevents |  -.1419033    .208374    -0.68   0.496    -.5503089    .2665023
     posbush |    .277435   .1756851     1.58   0.114    -.0669015    .6217716
     negbush |   .3264527   .2028917     1.61   0.108    -.0712077    .7241132
       peba4 |   .0937334   .1458281     0.64   0.520    -.1920844    .3795512
       neba4 |    .065391   .1445357     0.45   0.651    -.2178939    .3486758
 posbushxrep |   -.476611   .3194427    -1.49   0.136    -1.102707    .1494852
       nbba4 |  -.3971712   .1286725    -3.09   0.002    -.6493647   -.1449777
    bushapp4 |   1.840465    .132779    13.86   0.000     1.580223    2.100707
    democrat |  -.0000705   .1522071    -0.00   1.000    -.2983909      .29825
  republican |   .5408069   .1985701     2.72   0.006     .1516167    .9299971
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4193179   .1970879                     -.8056032   -.0330327
       /cut2 |   2.152087   .2134386                      1.733755    2.570419
       /cut3 |   4.776109   .2621523                        4.2623    5.289918
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> posbushxrep posbushxdem nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1338.9138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1000.5012  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -974.02397  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -973.85556  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -973.85553  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        996
                                                  LR chi2(12)     =     730.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -973.85553                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2727

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .2275771   .2121161     1.07   0.283    -.1881628    .6433169
   negevents |   -.139875   .2084417    -0.67   0.502    -.5484132    .2686631
     posbush |   .1926527   .2353852     0.82   0.413    -.2686938    .6539992
     negbush |   .3355592   .2036301     1.65   0.099    -.0635485    .7346668
       peba4 |   .0961344   .1459128     0.66   0.510    -.1898495    .3821183
       neba4 |   .0663486   .1445423     0.46   0.646     -.216949    .3496462
 posbushxrep |  -.3955047   .3528611    -1.12   0.262      -1.0871    .2960904
 posbushxdem |   .1698786   .3142989     0.54   0.589     -.446136    .7858931
       nbba4 |  -.4048848   .1294685    -3.13   0.002    -.6586384   -.1511312
    bushapp4 |   1.842309   .1328061    13.87   0.000     1.582014    2.102604
    democrat |  -.0543462   .1823351    -0.30   0.766    -.4117165    .3030241
  republican |   .5183413   .2028957     2.55   0.011      .120673    .9160096
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4403954   .2009221                     -.8341956   -.0465953
       /cut2 |    2.13195   .2165929                      1.707436    2.556465
       /cut3 |   4.756701   .2644359                      4.238416    5.274986
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4
> neba4 posbushxrep nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1168.0561  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =   -1164.49  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1164.4748  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1164.4748  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(11)     =     382.11
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1164.4748                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1409

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .0906128   .1996769     0.45   0.650    -.3007467    .4819724
   negevents |  -.1411833   .1961491    -0.72   0.472    -.5256285    .2432618
     posbush |   .0551229   .1676839     0.33   0.742    -.2735315    .3837773
     negbush |    .138915    .190877     0.73   0.467     -.235197    .5130271
       peba4 |   .1921246   .1443319     1.33   0.183    -.0907606    .4750098
       neba4 |   .1319776   .1420691     0.93   0.353    -.1464727    .4104278
 posbushxrep |  -.2230885   .3208295    -0.70   0.487    -.8519027    .4057258
       nbba4 |  -.3578294   .1264713    -2.83   0.005    -.6057087   -.1099502
    bushapp4 |   .8781273   .1175425     7.47   0.000     .6477482    1.108506
    democrat |  -.4435651   .1467641    -3.02   0.003    -.7312176   -.1559127
  republican |     .71157   .1986311     3.58   0.000     .3222603     1.10088
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.7857497   .1899441                     -1.158033   -.4134661
       /cut2 |   .7958346   .1885524                      .4262787     1.16539
       /cut3 |   1.929067   .1987951                      1.539436    2.318698
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4
> neba4 posbushxrep posbushxdem nbba4 bushapp4 dem rep;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1355.5307  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1167.9803  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1164.3982  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -1164.383  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -1164.383  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        994
                                                  LR chi2(12)     =     382.30
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -1164.383                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1410

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .0900391   .1996664     0.45   0.652    -.3012999    .4813781
   negevents |  -.1435167   .1962412    -0.73   0.465    -.5281424    .2411089
     posbush |   .1212809   .2280482     0.53   0.595    -.3256854    .5682472
     negbush |   .1323942   .1914137     0.69   0.489    -.2427698    .5075582
       peba4 |   .1903043   .1443892     1.32   0.188    -.0926932    .4733019
       neba4 |   .1306725   .1421107     0.92   0.358    -.1478593    .4092043
 posbushxrep |  -.2857178   .3526087    -0.81   0.418    -.9768181    .4053825
 posbushxdem |  -.1289253   .3009055    -0.43   0.668    -.7186892    .4608387
       nbba4 |  -.3516266   .1272697    -2.76   0.006    -.6010707   -.1021824
    bushapp4 |   .8768859   .1175648     7.46   0.000     .6464631    1.107309
    democrat |  -.4026206   .1750783    -2.30   0.021    -.7457678   -.0594735
  republican |   .7290399   .2026935     3.60   0.000      .331768    1.126312
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   -.770367   .1932547                     -1.149139   -.3915946
       /cut2 |   .8115374   .1920533                      .4351198    1.187955
       /cut3 |    1.94493   .2022107                      1.548604    2.341255
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  /* Table A30 */
> 
> logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -167.18703  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -144.60703  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -142.8773  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -142.84645  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -142.84644  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        333
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      48.68
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -142.84644                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1456

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .6964216   .4317747     1.61   0.107    -.1498413    1.542684
   negevents |  -.4139843   .5065638    -0.82   0.414    -1.406831    .5788625
     posbush |   .0523399   .4437718     0.12   0.906     -.817437    .9221167
     negbush |   .0948307   .4579013     0.21   0.836    -.8026394    .9923008
       peba4 |  -.1776427   .4895307    -0.36   0.717    -1.137105    .7818199
       neba4 |   .1708635   .5360144     0.32   0.750    -.8797053    1.221432
       pbba4 |  -.3071183    .511242    -0.60   0.548    -1.309134    .6948976
       nbba4 |  -.6948086   .4948454    -1.40   0.160    -1.664688    .2750706
    bushapp4 |   1.492762   .5036391     2.96   0.003     .5056479    2.479877
       _cons |  -2.100933    .426928    -4.92   0.000    -2.937697    -1.26417
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -367.75526  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -320.84658  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -310.85113  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -309.94357  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -309.93709  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -309.93708  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     115.64
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -309.93708                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1572

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.0288137   .3060843    -0.09   0.925    -.6287278    .5711005
   negevents |   -.330077   .2972839    -1.11   0.267    -.9127428    .2525888
     posbush |   .2995258   .2931888     1.02   0.307    -.2751136    .8741652
     negbush |   .5884274   .3091831     1.90   0.057    -.0175604    1.194415
       peba4 |   .4520917   .4079475     1.11   0.268    -.3474707    1.251654
       neba4 |  -.1369366   .4005322    -0.34   0.732    -.9219653     .648092
       pbba4 |   .2900788   .4065399     0.71   0.476    -.5067247    1.086882
       nbba4 |  -.9543437   .3887479    -2.45   0.014    -1.716275   -.1924118
    bushapp4 |    1.96835   .3802822     5.18   0.000     1.223011     2.71369
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.6546024   .2752177                     -1.194019   -.1151856
       /cut2 |   2.240494   .3066471                      1.639477    2.841511
       /cut3 |   5.699811   .5839368                      4.555316    6.844306
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> pbba4 nbba4 bushapp4 if dem==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -415.12603  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -401.38468  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -400.95134  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -400.95066  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -400.95066  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        332
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      28.35
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0008
Log likelihood = -400.95066                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0341

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.2894643   .2843116    -1.02   0.309    -.8467047    .2677761
   negevents |   -.301767   .2754661    -1.10   0.273    -.8416706    .2381366
     posbush |  -.1041899   .2703566    -0.39   0.700    -.6340791    .4256994
     negbush |   .1527938    .284991     0.54   0.592    -.4057783    .7113659
       peba4 |  -.0228489   .4061814    -0.06   0.955    -.8189498    .7732519
       neba4 |   .0972543   .4074376     0.24   0.811    -.7013088    .8958174
       pbba4 |   .0572914   .4136566     0.14   0.890    -.7534606    .8680434
       nbba4 |  -.6418699   .3830078    -1.68   0.094    -1.392552    .1088117
    bushapp4 |   .9649218   .3919842     2.46   0.014     .1966469    1.733197
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   -.758976   .2595097                     -1.267606   -.2503464
       /cut2 |   1.073387    .262532                      .5588342    1.587941
       /cut3 |   2.579581   .3156501                      1.960918    3.198244
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -255.31608  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -193.60034  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -192.63187  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -192.6252  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -192.6252  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        373
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     125.38
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -192.6252                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2455

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   1.534296    .484271     3.17   0.002      .585142     2.48345
   negevents |   1.197702   .4970448     2.41   0.016     .2235116    2.171892
     posbush |  -.3375406   .4571059    -0.74   0.460    -1.233452    .5583706
     negbush |  -.2581403    .430176    -0.60   0.548     -1.10127    .5849891
       peba4 |   -.377102   .3334206    -1.13   0.258    -1.030594    .2763904
       neba4 |  -.4641705   .3473697    -1.34   0.181    -1.145003    .2166616
       pbba4 |   .2434656    .344361     0.71   0.480    -.4314696    .9184008
       nbba4 |  -.0251702   .3044943    -0.08   0.934    -.6219681    .5716278
    bushapp4 |    1.42941   .2877887     4.97   0.000     .8653546    1.993466
       _cons |  -2.248075   .4442319    -5.06   0.000    -3.118753   -1.377396
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -496.68357  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -387.75136  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -380.64684  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -380.56081  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -380.56073  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -380.56073  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        373
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     232.25
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -380.56073                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2338

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5869322   .3341196     1.76   0.079    -.0679302    1.241795
   negevents |   .2129394   .3352774     0.64   0.525    -.4441921     .870071
     posbush |   .0279303   .3451439     0.08   0.936    -.6485393    .7043999
     negbush |  -.1275234   .3288285    -0.39   0.698    -.7720154    .5169686
       peba4 |    -.09207   .2366863    -0.39   0.697    -.5559666    .3718266
       neba4 |    .026872   .2572868     0.10   0.917    -.4774009    .5311448
       pbba4 |  -.0130878   .2575206    -0.05   0.959    -.5178188    .4916432
       nbba4 |  -.3035826    .232448    -1.31   0.192    -.7591724    .1520072
    bushapp4 |   1.824016   .2240483     8.14   0.000     1.384889    2.263143
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.4167551   .2935353                     -.9920737    .1585636
       /cut2 |   2.121027   .3204348                      1.492987    2.749068
       /cut3 |   4.544595    .392916                      3.774494    5.314696
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> pbba4 nbba4 bushapp4 if ind==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -510.94425  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -466.5245  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -466.00538  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -466.00386  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -466.00386  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        373
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      89.88
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -466.00386                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0880

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .5555825   .3134691     1.77   0.076    -.0588056    1.169971
   negevents |   .0458584   .3157315     0.15   0.885     -.572964    .6646807
     posbush |   .1154747   .3276589     0.35   0.725    -.5267249    .7576743
     negbush |   .1129485   .3074274     0.37   0.713    -.4895981     .715495
       peba4 |  -.0287964   .2309155    -0.12   0.901    -.4813825    .4237898
       neba4 |    .200615   .2547037     0.79   0.431    -.2985951    .6998251
       pbba4 |   .0215873   .2542743     0.08   0.932    -.4767812    .5199558
       nbba4 |  -.2869172   .2291916    -1.25   0.211    -.7361244      .16229
    bushapp4 |   .9098856   .1972217     4.61   0.000     .5233382    1.296433
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |   -.400622   .2766291                     -.9428051     .141561
       /cut2 |   .9923949   .2793421                      .4448945    1.539895
       /cut3 |   2.013121   .2949204                      1.435088    2.591155
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. logit surgebetter posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -155.79727  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -124.86232  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -122.33518  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -122.28537  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -122.2853  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood =  -122.2853  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        291
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      67.02
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -122.2853                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2151

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 surgebetter |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.6844007   1.064811    -0.64   0.520    -2.771391     1.40259
   negevents |  -.2273424   .9549259    -0.24   0.812    -2.098963    1.644278
     posbush |  -.2698879   1.008392    -0.27   0.789      -2.2463    1.706525
     negbush |  -.0182559   .9698319    -0.02   0.985    -1.919091     1.88258
       peba4 |   .6082417    .610868     1.00   0.319    -.5890375    1.805521
       neba4 |  -.3151819   .4954725    -0.64   0.525     -1.28629    .6559263
       pbba4 |   .2455676   .5295339     0.46   0.643    -.7922998    1.283435
       nbba4 |   .0165929   .4988568     0.03   0.973    -.9611485    .9943343
    bushapp4 |   1.306182   .4664433     2.80   0.005       .39197    2.220394
       _cons |  -.9411492   .8884431    -1.06   0.289    -2.682466    .8001673
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit iraqwin posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4 pbba4
> nbba4 bushapp4 if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -330.91054  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -270.10467  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -263.96296  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -263.69477  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -263.69409  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -263.69409  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        291
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     134.43
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -263.69409                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2031

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |  -.6635726   .8197734    -0.81   0.418    -2.270299    .9431538
   negevents |   -1.01882   .7825631    -1.30   0.193    -2.552615     .514976
     posbush |  -.8908474   .8573879    -1.04   0.299    -2.571297     .789602
     negbush |   .9965156   .7799212     1.28   0.201    -.5321019    2.525133
       peba4 |   .4972029   .3989939     1.25   0.213    -.2848107    1.279217
       neba4 |   .4195541   .3687038     1.14   0.255    -.3030921      1.1422
       pbba4 |   .5181184   .4192678     1.24   0.217    -.3036315    1.339868
       nbba4 |  -.4876351   .3671126    -1.33   0.184    -1.207163    .2318924
    bushapp4 |   1.550457   .3347701     4.63   0.000     .8943202    2.206595
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.5438069   .7104802                     -1.936323    .8487087
       /cut2 |   1.068849   .7091171                     -.3209947    2.458693
       /cut3 |   3.796263   .7428022                      2.340398    5.252129
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ologit disapptimetable4 posevents negevents posbush negbush peba4 neba4
> pbba4 nbba4 bushapp4 if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -306.84287  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -284.69058  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -283.71952  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -283.71798  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -283.71798  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        289
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      46.25
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -283.71798                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0754

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   posevents |   .2871628   .7865668     0.37   0.715     -1.25448    1.828805
   negevents |  -.8076538   .7245109    -1.11   0.265    -2.227669    .6123614
     posbush |   .7274846   .7975337     0.91   0.362    -.8356528    2.290622
     negbush |   .8657873   .7728551     1.12   0.263    -.6489808    2.380555
       peba4 |    .188919   .3910614     0.48   0.629    -.5775472    .9553853
       neba4 |    .369748   .3484809     1.06   0.289    -.3132619    1.052758
       pbba4 |   -.412094   .3974419    -1.04   0.300    -1.191066    .3668778
       nbba4 |  -.6515999   .3729949    -1.75   0.081    -1.382656    .0794566
    bushapp4 |   1.043152   .3411013     3.06   0.002     .3746058    1.711698
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.8809943   .7209289                     -2.293989    .5320003
       /cut2 |   .5038266   .7075598                     -.8829652    1.890618
       /cut3 |    1.59347   .7139141                      .1942237    2.992716
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* Table A31 */
> 
> ologit iraqwin i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -330.91054  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -270.10467  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -263.96296  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -263.69477  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -263.69409  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -263.69409  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        291
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     134.43
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -263.69409                       Pseudo R2       =     0.2031

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     iraqwin |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |  -.6635726   .8197734    -0.81   0.418    -2.270299    .9431538
 1.negevents |   -1.01882   .7825631    -1.30   0.193    -2.552615     .514976
   1.posbush |  -.8908474   .8573879    -1.04   0.299    -2.571297     .789602
   1.negbush |   .9965156   .7799212     1.28   0.201    -.5321019    2.525133
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .4972029   .3989939     1.25   0.213    -.2848107    1.279217
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .4195541   .3687038     1.14   0.255    -.3030921      1.1422
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   .5181184   .4192678     1.24   0.217    -.3036315    1.339868
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.4876351   .3671126    -1.33   0.184    -1.207163    .2318924
             |
    bushapp4 |   1.550457   .3347701     4.63   0.000     .8943202    2.206595
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.5438069   .7104802                     -1.936323    .8487087
       /cut2 |   1.068849   .7091171                     -.3209947    2.458693
       /cut3 |   3.796263   .7428022                      2.340398    5.252129
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        291
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3673024   .1651095     2.22   0.026     .0436938     .690911
          2  |   .1096555    .045783     2.40   0.017     .0199226    .1993885
          3  |   .0254634   .0099001     2.57   0.010     .0060596    .0448671
          4  |   .0055127   .0031137     1.77   0.077      -.00059    .0116153
          5  |   .1764884   .1130422     1.56   0.118    -.0450702     .398047
          6  |   .0689363   .0328212     2.10   0.036     .0046078    .1332648
          7  |   .0249414   .0099763     2.50   0.012     .0053883    .0444945
          8  |   .0087597   .0049524     1.77   0.077    -.0009468    .0184663
          9  |   .6165695   .1898603     3.25   0.001     .2444501    .9886888
         10  |   .1831726   .0754612     2.43   0.015     .0352713    .3310739
         11  |   .0303244   .0117888     2.57   0.010     .0072188    .0534299
         12  |   .0043422   .0026085     1.66   0.096    -.0007704    .0094548
         13  |   .3725008   .1582345     2.35   0.019      .062367    .6826347
         14  |   .1187962   .0474981     2.50   0.012     .0257016    .2118908
         15  |   .0297058   .0112549     2.64   0.008     .0076465    .0517651
         16  |   .0069046   .0037437     1.84   0.065    -.0004328    .0142421
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        291
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3770756   .0673215     5.60   0.000     .2451279    .5090232
          2  |   .2722169   .0707733     3.85   0.000     .1335039      .41093
          3  |   .0904138   .0255236     3.54   0.000     .0403884    .1404392
          4  |   .0215406   .0099522     2.16   0.030     .0020347    .0410465
          5  |   .3415872   .0915488     3.73   0.000     .1621548    .5210195
          6  |   .2018793    .064411     3.13   0.002     .0756361    .3281225
          7  |   .0887768   .0251725     3.53   0.000     .0394396     .138114
          8  |   .0336869   .0158495     2.13   0.034     .0026224    .0647514
          9  |   .2731294   .1181364     2.31   0.021     .0415863    .5046725
         10  |   .3462078   .0713595     4.85   0.000     .2063459    .4860698
         11  |   .1052724   .0302324     3.48   0.000     .0460179    .1645268
         12  |   .0170655   .0085831     1.99   0.047     .0002428    .0338881
         13  |    .376098   .0689163     5.46   0.000     .2410245    .5111715
         14  |   .2846267   .0664979     4.28   0.000     .1542931    .4149602
         15  |   .1034199   .0275591     3.75   0.000     .0494051    .1574347
         16  |   .0267954   .0119342     2.25   0.025     .0034047    .0501861
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        291
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2336606    .119847     1.95   0.051    -.0012353    .4685565
          2  |   .5224157   .0710274     7.36   0.000     .3832046    .6616268
          3  |   .5512785   .0447158    12.33   0.000     .4636371    .6389199
          4  |    .271309   .0759786     3.57   0.000     .1223937    .4202243
          5  |   .4245866   .1472697     2.88   0.004     .1359434    .7132299
          6  |   .5794805   .0471027    12.30   0.000     .4871609    .6718001
          7  |    .548703   .0453344    12.10   0.000     .4598491    .6375569
          8  |   .3615789   .0873547     4.14   0.000     .1903669     .532791
          9  |   .1022598   .0735482     1.39   0.164     -.041892    .2464116
         10  |   .4156829   .0980781     4.24   0.000     .2234533    .6079125
         11  |   .5702007   .0423439    13.47   0.000     .4872082    .6531932
         12  |   .2292793   .0773159     2.97   0.003      .077743    .3808156
         13  |   .2299138   .1104959     2.08   0.037     .0133457    .4464819
         14  |   .5084075   .0704874     7.21   0.000     .3702547    .6465602
         15  |   .5682409   .0410684    13.84   0.000     .4877483    .6487335
         16  |   .3141366   .0786149     4.00   0.000     .1600542    .4682189
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        291
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(iraqwin==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .0219614   .0159547     1.38   0.169    -.0093093    .0532321
          2  |   .0957119   .0387941     2.47   0.014     .0196767     .171747
          3  |   .3328444   .0604855     5.50   0.000      .214295    .4513938
          4  |   .7016378   .0867257     8.09   0.000     .5316585    .8716171
          5  |   .0573378   .0419062     1.37   0.171    -.0247969    .1394725
          6  |   .1497039   .0587905     2.55   0.011     .0344766    .2649312
          7  |   .3375788   .0615379     5.49   0.000     .2169666    .4581909
          8  |   .5959744   .1045107     5.70   0.000     .3911372    .8008117
          9  |   .0080414   .0067668     1.19   0.235    -.0052213     .021304
         10  |   .0549367   .0261692     2.10   0.036     .0036459    .1062274
         11  |   .2942026   .0606902     4.85   0.000     .1752521    .4131531
         12  |   .7493131   .0868431     8.63   0.000     .5791038    .9195223
         13  |   .0214874   .0145999     1.47   0.141    -.0071279    .0501027
         14  |   .0881697   .0337642     2.61   0.009     .0219932    .1543462
         15  |   .2986334   .0552532     5.40   0.000     .1903392    .4069276
         16  |   .6521634   .0912486     7.15   0.000     .4733194    .8310074
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue for
> Republicans who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of
> Bush, and so forth through Republicans who strongly approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .36730244  .37707559  .23366058  .02196139
 r2  .61656948  .27312939  .10225977  .00804136
 r3  .17648839  .34158715  .42458664  .05733782
 r4  .10965555  .27221692  .52241567  .09571187
 r5  .18317259  .34620784  .41568291  .05493666
 r6  .06893629  .20187927  .57948052  .14970391
 r7  .02546335  .09041379  .55127849  .33284437
 r8  .03032435  .10527236  .57020069  .29420259
 r9  .02494143  .08877681  .54870299  .33757876
r10  .00551266  .02154057  .27130898  .70163779
r11   .0043422  .01706547  .22927927  .74931305
r12  .00875975   .0336869  .36157893  .59597442

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. ologit disapptimetable4 i.posevents i.negevents i.posbush i.negbush
> i.posevents#c.bushapp4 i.negevents#c.bushapp4 i.posbush#c.bushapp4
> i.negbush#c.bushapp4 c.bushapp4 if rep==1;

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -306.84287  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -284.69058  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -283.71952  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -283.71798  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -283.71798  

Ordered logistic regression                       Number of obs   =        289
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      46.25
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -283.71798                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0754

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
disapptime~4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 1.posevents |   .2871628   .7865668     0.37   0.715     -1.25448    1.828805
 1.negevents |  -.8076538   .7245109    -1.11   0.265    -2.227669    .6123614
   1.posbush |   .7274846   .7975337     0.91   0.362    -.8356528    2.290622
   1.negbush |   .8657873   .7728551     1.12   0.263    -.6489808    2.380555
             |
   posevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |    .188919   .3910614     0.48   0.629    -.5775472    .9553853
             |
   negevents#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |    .369748   .3484809     1.06   0.289    -.3132619    1.052758
             |
     posbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |   -.412094   .3974419    -1.04   0.300    -1.191066    .3668778
             |
     negbush#|
  c.bushapp4 |
          1  |  -.6515999   .3729949    -1.75   0.081    -1.382656    .0794566
             |
    bushapp4 |   1.043152   .3411013     3.06   0.002     .3746058    1.711698
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       /cut1 |  -.8809943   .7209289                     -2.293989    .5320003
       /cut2 |   .5038266   .7075598                     -.8829652    1.890618
       /cut3 |    1.59347   .7139141                      .1942237    2.992716
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(0));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        289
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==0), predict(outcome(0))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2929718   .1493327     1.96   0.050      .000285    .5856585
          2  |   .1273999   .0505995     2.52   0.012     .0282267    .2265731
          3  |   .0489253    .016602     2.95   0.003     .0163859    .0814646
          4  |   .0178026   .0092547     1.92   0.054    -.0003363    .0359414
          5  |   .1484536   .0928668     1.60   0.110     -.033562    .3304692
          6  |   .1054264   .0439293     2.40   0.016     .0193266    .1915263
          7  |   .0737894   .0232992     3.17   0.002     .0281239     .119455
          8  |   .0511039   .0236293     2.16   0.031     .0047913    .0974165
          9  |   .4816731   .1952718     2.47   0.014     .0989474    .8643988
         10  |   .1844867   .0721381     2.56   0.011     .0430986    .3258747
         11  |   .0521961   .0182447     2.86   0.004     .0164371     .087955
         12  |   .0132288   .0074996     1.76   0.078    -.0014701    .0279277
         13  |   .2810766   .1266383     2.22   0.026       .03287    .5292831
         14  |   .1544094   .0532613     2.90   0.004     .0500191    .2587997
         15  |   .0785851   .0236302     3.33   0.001     .0322707    .1248995
         16  |   .0383083   .0170044     2.25   0.024     .0049803    .0716363
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c1=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(1));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        289
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==1), predict(outcome(1))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .3303864   .0511113     6.46   0.000     .2302101    .4305627
          2  |   .2409446   .0588981     4.09   0.000     .1255065    .3563827
          3  |   .1215196   .0304534     3.99   0.000     .0618319    .1812073
          4  |   .0497045   .0220953     2.25   0.024     .0063986    .0930104
          5  |   .2620314   .0882146     2.97   0.003      .089134    .4349288
          6  |   .2146299   .0575435     3.73   0.000     .1018467    .3274132
          7  |   .1676022   .0357871     4.68   0.000     .0974608    .2377436
          8  |   .1259237   .0441467     2.85   0.004     .0393978    .2124495
          9  |   .3060877    .078127     3.92   0.000     .1529616    .4592138
         10  |   .2901801     .06074     4.78   0.000     .1711319    .4092284
         11  |   .1281034   .0341953     3.75   0.000     .0610819     .195125
         12  |   .0375955   .0186514     2.02   0.044     .0010393    .0741516
         13  |   .3285382   .0524257     6.27   0.000     .2257856    .4312908
         14  |   .2673373   .0554143     4.82   0.000     .1587273    .3759473
         15  |   .1755066   .0366896     4.78   0.000     .1035964    .2474169
         16  |   .0989552   .0340898     2.90   0.004     .0321403      .16577
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c2=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(2));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        289
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==2), predict(outcome(2))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .2077455    .070446     2.95   0.003      .069674    .3458171
          2  |   .2658648   .0318614     8.34   0.000     .2034175     .328312
          3  |   .2087812   .0345686     6.04   0.000      .141028    .2765343
          4  |   .1096124   .0390806     2.80   0.005     .0330159     .186209
          5  |   .2638115   .0352377     7.49   0.000     .1947469     .332876
          6  |   .2631938   .0331284     7.94   0.000     .1982633    .3281244
          7  |   .2447564   .0328705     7.45   0.000     .1803315    .3091814
          8  |   .2130529   .0451097     4.72   0.000     .1246396    .3014662
          9  |   .1291522   .0723299     1.79   0.074    -.0126118    .2709161
         10  |   .2540701   .0382171     6.65   0.000     .1791659    .3289743
         11  |   .2150987   .0364667     5.90   0.000     .1436252    .2865722
         12  |   .0865139   .0360329     2.40   0.016     .0158908     .157137
         13  |    .213171   .0615465     3.46   0.001      .092542    .3337999
         14  |   .2626466   .0330501     7.95   0.000     .1978695    .3274237
         15  |   .2490922   .0325583     7.65   0.000     .1852791    .3129052
         16  |   .1838708   .0426022     4.32   0.000     .1003721    .2673695
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c3=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. /* get effects for negative events and cues for Reps */
> margins, at(bushapp4=(0(1)3) negbush=(0(1)1) negevents=(0(1)1) 
> posevents=0 posbush=0) predict(outcome(3));

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =        289
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(disapptimetable4==3), predict(outcome(3))

1._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

2._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

3._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

4._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

5._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

6._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

7._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

8._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           0
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

9._at        : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           0

10._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           1

11._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           2

12._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           0
               bushapp4        =           3

13._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           0

14._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           1

15._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           2

16._at       : posevents       =           0
               negevents       =           1
               posbush         =           0
               negbush         =           1
               bushapp4        =           3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         _at |
          1  |   .1688963   .1002124     1.69   0.092    -.0275163    .3653089
          2  |   .3657907    .097766     3.74   0.000     .1741729    .5574086
          3  |   .6207739   .0658437     9.43   0.000     .4917226    .7498253
          4  |   .8228805   .0670373    12.27   0.000     .6914899    .9542712
          5  |   .3257035   .1568305     2.08   0.038     .0183215    .6330856
          6  |   .4167498   .1026456     4.06   0.000      .215568    .6179316
          7  |   .5138519     .06547     7.85   0.000     .3855331    .6421708
          8  |   .6099195   .1012224     6.03   0.000     .4115273    .8083117
          9  |   .0830871   .0606038     1.37   0.170    -.0356943    .2018684
         10  |   .2712631   .0925403     2.93   0.003     .0898874    .4526389
         11  |   .6046018   .0730717     8.27   0.000     .4613839    .7478197
         12  |   .8626619   .0599052    14.40   0.000     .7452499    .9800739
         13  |   .1772143   .0915424     1.94   0.053    -.0022056    .3566342
         14  |   .3156067   .0826993     3.82   0.000     .1535191    .4776943
         15  |   .4968161   .0639609     7.77   0.000      .371455    .6221772
         16  |   .6788658   .0846531     8.02   0.000     .5129488    .8447827
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. matrix a=r(b);

. matrix c4=a[1,1] \ a[1,9] \ a[1,5] \ a[1,2] \ a[1,10] \ a[1,6] \
> a[1,3] \ a[1,11] \ a[1,7] \ a[1,4] \ a[1,12] \ a[1,8] ;

. matrix drop a;

. matrix bushfavd=(c1, c2, c3, c4);

. /* Matrix provides predicted probabilities for the four response
> choices for no treatment, negative event, and negative cue for
> Democrats who disapprove of Bush, Independents who disapprove of Bush,
> and so forth through Republicans who approve of Bush */
> 
> matrix list bushfavd;

bushfavd[12,4]
            c1         c1         c1         c1
 r1  .29297178   .3303864  .20774553   .1688963
 r2   .4816731  .30608768  .12915215  .08308706
 r3  .14845359  .26203143  .26381146  .32570352
 r4  .12739991  .24094461  .26586476  .36579073
 r5  .18448667  .29018013  .25407007  .27126313
 r6  .10542644  .21462992  .26319385  .41674979
 r7  .04892528  .12151961  .20878118  .62077393
 r8  .05219606  .12810343  .21509872  .60460179
 r9  .07378945   .1676022  .24475643  .51385193
r10  .01780255  .04970449  .10961243  .82288053
r11  .01322882  .03759546  .08651386  .86266186
r12  .05110392  .12592367  .21305287  .60991954

. matrix drop c1 c2 c3 c4 bushfavd;

. log close;
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  gelpi.out
  log type:  text
 closed on:  30 Apr 2015, 15:56:57
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
